Kamala Harris Pulls Next to Donald Trump in ARIZONA

The seven state dream is getting closer to reality

I created the image you see above on October 8.

Then, I added the following: “After gaining ground and stabilizing her lead in Michigan and Wisconsin, Harris shifted her focus to Pennsylvania. As the ad bookings through Election Day indicate, she’s now planning to ramp up spending and increase her presence in Arizona and Nevada.”

This was Kamala Harris’s campaign strategy for this election cycle: start in the Midwest, secure Pennsylvania, and then turn attention to the Sun Belt. Early October was for Arizona and Nevada; late October would be for North Carolina.

I understood what they were trying to do—first, secure the 270 with the Midwest and Pennsylvania, then move south. I understood it, but I hated it with all my heart. It was a risk-averse strategy that placed too much emphasis on winning with exactly 270 votes. It felt as if they had given up on trying to lift their sagging numbers with Hispanic voters.

Both Arizona and Nevada have strong Hispanic electorates, accounting for more than a quarter of the voters. For years, Democrats have been losing Hispanic support. Little by little, the current generation of Hispanic voters and their fathers have been drifting to the right. Democrats kept thinking that the threat of Trump’s draconian anti-immigrant stance would be enough to keep them in the Democratic camp.

Not really. It may help in the margins, but that’s about it. Unless Democrats understand that these are Americans and address them as such, they deserve the loss of support. Hispanic voters are no different from any other demographic; they want a secure border and a better economy. Harris understood this nuance and initially hit the right notes, staying on the offensive about immigration and clearly articulating her economic plan.

That’s what she did at the start of the campaign, which gave me a lot of hope. I thought she would hit all seven battlegrounds with equal intensity. But that didn’t happen. Instead, it turned into a semi-circle route to the White House.

I still hate it, even though the results of the semi-circle strategy are starting to show in the polls. Both North Carolina and Georgia are turning out in record numbers. While the MAGA world wants us to believe it’s Trump voters showing up in traditionally Democratic-heavy counties, I’m not interested in buying into that theory.

As far as I can see, both Democrats and Republicans are turning out in record numbers. Higher turnout ensures that the race remains close and could go down to the wire. This is actually good for Harris in Georgia and North Carolina, as both states have enough voters on the rolls for each side to hope for a victory. At this stage, a close race in these two states works in Harris's favor.

She hits 270 with PA, remember.

That leaves Arizona and Nevada hanging in the balance—two states where more than a quarter of voters are Hispanic. It’s still unclear which way Nevada will swing, but Harris has pulled up right next to Donald Trump in Arizona.

A recent poll from the Arizona Policy Lab at the University of Arizona’s School of Government and Public Policy has Harris at 46.15% and Trump at 45.48%.

The undecided voters stand at 5%, and whichever way they break, they will carry the race with them. If Harris wins a lion’s share of the undecideds, she will edge out Trump. If Trump carries them, then he will win the race.

However, two factors weigh on my mind before conceding the state to Donald Trump. First, the Senate race in Arizona is clearly leaning in favor of the Democrats.

For Ruben Gallego, the impact of undecided voters will be minimal. He’s already at 51%, so even if Lake captures all the undecideds, she still won’t win. Of course, there’s virtually zero chance that any one candidate will capture 100% of the undecideds.

To make matters worse for Lake, the racist vitriol spewed by the MAGA troupe at Madison Square Garden will likely push these undecided voters toward the Democratic candidates in the state. It will help Harris and it will help Gallego. So, thank you, Mr. Trump, for not fighting for the approval of Hispanic voters but instead reminding them why they were right to reject him in 2020.

The Madison Square Garden rally came at just the right time. I'm glad the MAGA world chose to reveal its true colors so close to the election.