Justin Trudeau is out

Well, there was no way out.

Today, Justin Trudeau announced he’s stepping down as leader of Canada’s Liberal Party, marking the end of an era for one of the country’s most prominent political figures.

Trudeau led the Liberals for 11 years, turning the party from a third-wheel contender to a majority government in 2015. But with the 2025 election looming, his party is facing an uphill battle, and polling points to a likely victory for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.

Trudeau cited internal party struggles as the reason for his departure, acknowledging that he couldn’t be the best choice moving forward. “This country deserves a real choice in the next election,” he said, “and it has become clear to me that if I’m having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election.”

This wasn’t an easy decision. Trudeau fought to stay in power. His minority government was already under pressure, with the opposition ready to force a no-confidence vote. It would have brought his government down and been a major embarrassment. He blocked that by proroguing Parliament, temporarily halting its functions. But internal divisions, including the resignation of his longtime ally and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, made it impossible to salvage his leadership.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, raised three times the money the Liberals did. Behind in the polls and outmatched financially, Trudeau’s exit doesn’t guarantee a Liberal comeback. The party is trailing the Conservatives by a staggering 20 points in polls.

The global post-COVID political landscape is shifting, as voters revolt against governments that failed to tackle inflation and economic strain. Countries like New Zealand, Australia, Sweden, Italy, France, the UK, and the US have seen ruling parties ousted. Polls suggest Canada and Germany may be next. The right wingers are pushing the theory that a conservative wave is sweeping the world.

Sorry, that is not true.

Frustration over rising living costs is cross-ideological, and the UK saw its own ruling Conservative Party booted for mishandling the pandemic.

An anti-incumbency wave is sweeping the world.

Now, Canada is part of that anti-incumbency wave. Trudeau’s resignation gives the Liberals a slight chance at recovery, but with the economy struggling and Poilievre’s Conservatives surging, the 2025 election is looking tough for Trudeau’s successor. The question isn’t whether the landscape is changing—it’s clear that it is—but whether the Liberals can overcome this perfect storm.

I think it’s far too late for the Liberals in Canada to recover.