Independents Finally Break for Harris in the Blue Wall

Harris hits the critical 50 line in the last leg

It took a while, but the final breakthrough has arrived, with independents making the decisive move. This shift has helped Kamala Harris reach the critical 50–51% mark in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The blue wall to 270 electoral votes is steadily securing itself.

PA, MI, WI

Just look at how independents have broken in her favor in the final stretch. Back in September, Trump was leading Harris among independents in Pennsylvania, and the race was uncomfortably close in Wisconsin. This likely explains why Harris struggled to reach and maintain 50% in those states.

However, independents have now started to swing in Harris’s favor. The latest Marist poll at the end of October shows a clear break from September’s numbers. The only major event between the two Marist polls was the MSG rally, which brought unfiltered hatred and racism into the mainstream.

I recall a Daily Beast author describing the rally as “political suicide.” It seems they may have been right. Pennsylvania alone is home to over 300,000 Puerto Rican voters, and Trump has suffered a five-point drop in support among independents there since September 2024.

The last-minute national shift could still be intense, as a significant number of independents remain undecided. As shown in the latest YouGov national poll below, Harris trailed Trump among independents nationwide.

But you can also see that 39 + 42 = 81. 

That’s more than 10% of undecided independents as of the last week of October. They hadn’t shifted yet. Then came the MSG hate rally, and afterward, the break in Pennsylvania finally happened. I’m not sure if YouGov is scheduled to conduct another round of polling, but it would be amazing if they did — I’m really interested to see where that +10% of undecided independents might move. 

If Kamala Harris captures a significant portion of this group, her national lead could grow even further. In the YouGov poll I’m referencing, Harris was at 47, Trump at 46, with +10% of independents still undecided. If Harris takes the majority of this group, she could clearly pass the 50% threshold.

I know I keep talking about the 50% mark as a magic number, but that’s because it is a magic number. A candidate who consistently hits or surpasses that line is almost certain to win, barring any unforeseen events that disrupt the race. At 50%, there’s no longer concern over which way undecideds might lean. But at 47%, there’s still a need to pull them to your side.

The difference between 48 and 50 isn’t merely two points; it’s far more consequential. It’s not like moving from 41 to 43; it’s the difference between winning and losing. Right now, that 50% at the national level is closer to Harris than it is to Donald Trump.

I moved Michigan and Pennsylvania into the “Safe Harris” column three days ago:

But I have yet to move Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgia.

Why? Let’s go through each one, step by step.