If the election were held today, Kamala Harris would defeat Donald Trump by a landslide.
I think ‘rout’ would be the better word to use.
Better than Biden in 2020’ should be the mantra of Kamala Harris’s campaign to win the 2024 presidential election. Given the increasing political divide in the United States and the way the Electoral College functions, doing as well as we did last time won’t cut it. It might, but most likely it won’t.
One of the challenges Biden faced until he dropped out in July was that he was trailing his own 2020 numbers with women, Black Americans, Hispanics, White college-educated voters, and nearly every demographic that chose him over Trump. When Harris took over, things started moving in the right direction, but she was still not reaching Biden’s 2020 numbers. Progress was being made, but it wasn’t enough — until now.
The latest poll released by NBC News shows that Harris has finally hit closer to the critical Biden 2020 coalition numbers.
As you can see, Harris still has some way to go before she reaches Biden’s 2020 numbers with Black Americans, Hispanics, and White college-educated voters. However, compared to where she started — sub-70% with Black voters and around 50% with Hispanics — she has improved significantly. The biggest key here, as expected, is her ability to increase her numbers with women.
Biden won women by an 11-point margin in 2020, but Harris now holds a commanding 21-point lead. This is unprecedented territory in the recent history of presidential elections.
That one number alone could be enough to create a landslide effect. I mentioned earlier that the ‘pets are getting eaten’ nonsense Trump and Vance are pushing into the mainstream would backfire. If they want proof, here it is: Harris is performing better with women than both Hillary Clinton and President Biden.
She wasn’t, until Trump spearheaded this nonsense.
At first glance, Harris running slightly behind the 2020 Biden numbers with Black Americans, Hispanics, and White college-educated voters might seem like a concern — after all, these are votes she needs to earn. But if you look closely, you’ll notice there are still a lot of undecideds within these demographics.
There are plenty of undecideds up for grabs, and momentum is behind Harris as things stand. Trump and Vance are going all in on their anti-immigrant angle, but what are the odds of Trump walking away with even half of the undecided men and women? At this point in the race, a lot of these undecideds are people who are more frustrated with the parties than the candidates themselves.
The chances of Trump capturing half of the undecided women, Black, and Hispanic voters are slim to none — maybe a little, but not much.
Okay, I realize I’m going in circles here. Harris has a solid national lead, and the odds look good for her to gain another two points from where she stands now.
And that, my friends, is landslide territory. If the election were held today, Harris would win by a landslide. Unfortunately, the election isn’t today — we still have time left, and things can, of course, move up or down.
I believe Kamala Harris has a bit more room to grow before her numbers stabilize. The NBC news poll had Kamala Harris at 49 and Trump at 44. Harris has started to hit the 50 level mark in national polls. I think she is going to start hitting the 51, 52 levels over the next two weeks.
53 is not out of reach, but she needs to get that Hispanic numbers up to where it belongs.
Great article! It is reinforced by the numbers coming from the betting sites as well...