How Trump’s Ceasefire Just Blew Up in His Face

Two deals. No unity. Europe’s out.

Oh well. The news cycle seems to be every four hours. That’s how fast the story keeps changing. It’s diplomacy on the fly—improvised, chaotic, and increasingly reckless.

Instead of sitting Ukraine and Russia down together, the United States thought it’d be a great idea to hold separate talks. The result? Two ceasefire proposals, one from each side—and no actual agreement. Then Washington tried to sideline Europe, insisting it didn’t need a seat at the table.

That didn’t go well.

Russia demanded that certain sanctions be lifted as a condition for any ceasefire. Problem is, those sanctions weren’t American—they were European. So when the EU saw what Moscow was asking for, it gave the whole thing a very public “no thanks.”

Now Secretary of State Marco Rubio is walking it all back, saying the U.S. will “evaluate” Russia’s ceasefire conditions. “Some of those conditions include sanctions that are not ours. They belong to the European Union,” Rubio said, trying to downplay the White House’s role in the mess.

Too late. Brussels has already rejected Russia’s demand to lift EU restrictions on Rosselkhozbank, a key agricultural bank. The Commission made it clear: no sanctions will be lifted until Russia unconditionally withdraws from Ukraine.

This comes just hours after the U.S. claimed to have brokered a ceasefire covering energy infrastructure and the Black Sea—only for the Kremlin to tack on sanction rollbacks as a precondition.

Trump has walked himself into a trap—and the way out isn’t exactly lined with roses. There are pitfalls in every direction.

Forget Europe. Forget Ukraine. Strip it down to Trump’s political calculus.

There’s little doubt he wants to end this war and take a global victory lap. Wrapping it up would deliver a massive political windfall—just in time to soften the economic hit he knows is coming in the 2026 midterms. If he can claim credit for stopping the war, it becomes a lot harder to challenge him, at least for a while.

But here’s the catch: if he tries to shove a deal down Ukraine’s throat—one that gives Russia everything and Ukraine nothing—Kyiv is likely to walk away. Even CIA Director John Ratcliffe sounded the alarm during a Senate hearing:

"I want to say that with regard to the Ukrainian resistance, the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian military have been underestimated for a period of several years now.

"From my reflections in observing, from an intelligence standpoint, I'm convinced that they will fight with their bare hands if they have to, if they don't have terms that are acceptable to an enduring peace." - CIA Director John Ratcliffe said during a U.S. Senate hearing on March 25

So where does that leave Trump?

The most Trump can realistically push is a deal slightly favorable to Putin. Anything beyond that, and Ukraine will likely go its own way—turning to Europe for support. And not just Brussels: Kyiv will lean heavily on the Baltics, Poland, and Germany to keep fighting. It won’t be easy, but the odds of Ukraine taking that route aren’t close to zero—they’re rising by the day.

At some point, Trump was always going to have to stand firm against Putin. That moment came on March 25, when the White House agreed to lift European sanctions on Moscow—without even consulting the Europeans. Now, if Trump really wants this deal, he’ll need to do the one thing he’s been avoiding: tell Putin no. No sanction relief. Agree to the partial ceasefire or face more pressure—including, potentially, new sanctions.

The alternative—trying to strong-arm Europe—isn’t playing well. Not just U.S. media, but international outlets are beginning to frame Team Trump as Team Kremlin. And the optics aren’t great: Ukraine has accepted the U.S. terms, while Putin is the one stalling with conditions. If Trump keeps pushing Europe, he’ll only reinforce the narrative that he’s doing Moscow’s bidding.

Worse, he risks losing leverage with Ukraine. That minerals deal? Gone. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said today that the U.S. and Ukraine might sign it as early as next week. So yes—Trump pivoted toward Putin yesterday. But now, his only real play is to walk it back. The center or center adjacent is the only move left—even if Trump’s only goal is salvaging his political capital.