How to Survive the Trump Administration’s Fourfold Blow
Tariffs, Deregulation, Tax Breaks, and Mass Deportation
As the contours of Donald Trump's MAGA administration became clearer, it became evident that four key areas would be central to their agenda and have the most significant impact on the United States: tariffs, deregulation, mass deportation, and tax breaks.
Among these, tariffs and mass deportation are expected to have an immediate effect on the economy, while deregulation and tax breaks will take time to reveal their full impact. If we were to rank them by their near-term effects, it would look something like this:
Tariffs/Mass Deportation
Tax Breaks
Deregulation
Each of these areas represents a potential time bomb, capable of causing significant disruptions to the economy. Today, we will focus on tariffs, examining how they could unfold. Over the coming days, we will explore the other three key issues in detail.
A closer look at these four issues reveals that tax breaks and deregulation are where the entire GOP coalition—comprising the billionaire class, House Representatives, Senators, and the Trump administration—will unite as a powerful force. This is their core focus, with deregulation following closely behind. Mass deportation, on the other hand, is where the more extremist, racially charged faction of the MAGA movement will find its voice. This issue serves as a rallying cry for the base, fueling a spectacle that the MAGA administration thrives on. It’s all about the show, and they love putting it on display.
Tariffs represent the weakest point for the GOP coalition. This is inevitable, as tariffs are likely to affect a wide range of industries.
“To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff,” Trump said in an October interview at the Economic Club of Chicago. “And it’s my favorite word.”
Retailers, automakers, and technology companies like Apple would bear the brunt if the administration moves forward with broad tariffs on imports, especially without a clear strategy to rebuild U.S. production from the ground up. Internal divisions within the GOP are already becoming apparent, with figures like Senator Rand Paul speaking out against the administration’s tariff plans.
“I don’t like tariffs, but I also don’t like the president promoting them. Tariffs are a tax on the consumer.” — Senator Rand Paul.
While Democrats should continue to quietly oppose the administration on the other three issues, they should take a strong, unified stand against tariffs. They need to consistently hammer home the message that tariffs are essentially taxes on the American public. Every ounce of political capital Trump expends on tariffs will help Democrats advance in other areas. Additionally, Democrats will have industry backing if they take this stance.
If they need ideas for pushing back, they could look no further than the U.S. agriculture industry, which could serve as a powerful ally in the fight against tariffs.
During his first term, Trump imposed a series of tariffs on Chinese products, prompting China to retaliate by imposing heavy tariffs on U.S. soybean imports. The U.S. soybean industry got crushed.
After President Donald Trump took office in 2017, trade tensions accelerated. US soybean exports to China began to fall and, in 2018, as trade tensions escalated into a full-scale trade war, exports fell sharply to $3.1 billion from $12.3 billion in 2017.
Pardon my language, but who in the f*** is going to tell Americans what the chart above reveals? Who’s going to explain the hidden damage Trump’s trade wars caused to everyday Americans? Democrats are completely dropping the ball here. That’s all I’ve got to say about them. Farm bankruptcies soared as a direct result of Trump’s tariff war with China.
Lessons from China
There is nothing wrong with learning from your competitors. In 2015, China handpicked a dozen industries to focus on as part of its Made in China 2025 initiative, aiming to elevate its manufacturing capacity to the next level.
Advanced Information Technology (semiconductors, software)
Robotics and automation
Aerospace equipment
High-tech maritime engineering
Advanced rail transport
Energy-saving vehicles (including electric vehicles)
Power equipment
Materials (such as high-performance alloys)
and more
Of these industries, China has seen the most success in Electric Vehicles and Robotics/Automation. China skillfully used a combination of tariffs, subsidies, and trade policies to help these sectors grow. Initially, China imposed tariffs on foreign-made vehicles, including electric cars, to support the development of its domestic automotive industry. As local manufacturing capabilities strengthened, China reduced tariffs on imported vehicles from 25% to 15%, and at times, offered targeted tax breaks to foreign companies like Tesla.
This allowed domestic manufacturers to access new technologies, with Tesla now building batteries in China. This, in turn, helps shape the supply chain for new battery technologies, benefiting everyone. I wouldn’t be surprised if China continues to reduce tariffs on imported cars further. The original purpose of these tariffs—to help grow the domestic industry—has been achieved. So, they move on to the next step: enabling their homegrown industries to compete globally.
By reducing tariffs on imports, China is confident that its domestic manufacturing capacity is robust enough to compete with foreign goods and shift focus toward increasing exports.
This is exactly what the Trump administration lacked the first time and will likely lack again: a clear purpose. Do they even have a real reason for imposing tariffs?
No. T
hey don't care about strengthening domestic manufacturing. The true goal is to project Donald Trump as a strongman—someone who is tough enough to bully China. But it will be American consumers, farmers, and manufacturers who bear the costs of this spectacle.
Auto manufacturing is one area where the Trump administration could truly make a difference. Even the cars built in America aren’t fully American. Some well-known models have nearly half of their components sourced from outside the United States.
“The cost of a car with 35% imported parts would increase by $2,000 with a 25% tariff on parts, according to the American Automotive Policy Council”. To be effective, Donald Trump needs a ten- to twenty-year plan to shift American car manufacturing inward.
He should follow the path that China took.
Instead of slapping tariffs on a list created by Project 2025 advocates, Trump could sit down with auto manufacturers and ask them what they need to reduce foreign components in cars made in America. He could raise taxes, then invest that money in the identified areas, offer subsidies to manufacturers who participate, and implement higher tariffs for the first few years. As companies begin to produce truly American-made cars, he could gradually reduce the tariffs. This approach could be applied industry by industry. He needs to drop Project 2025.
He needs to launch Made in America 2035.
Trump does have the opportunity to elevate the Biden economy to the next level, pushing it beyond $35 trillion. Tariffs can be useful, but only when the real goal is to boost American manufacturing. Telling kids to study hard won't cut it if you're just sitting around watching Fox News all day. You need to create an environment that fosters hard work and allows people to embrace it.
As the opposition, Democrats have a job to do. They need to shift their focus from mass deportation. They must soften the Trump administration’s stance on that issue—but that should come second or even third. The primary focus must be on tariffs. That’s where the U.S. economy will suffer the most. Democrats need to drain Trump’s political capital there.
Pin Trump on tariffs. That’s where he’s most vulnerable.
Get to work.
Well reasoned advice that will be ignored...