How the heck did Trump get this close to winning the election?

The MAGA strategy to win is not a bad one. But when you embrace darkness, you always lose talent at the door.

No. The image above is not for you, me, or the millions of economically struggling American men who will vote for Trump. It is dedicated to the uber-wealthy.

After everything that happened during Trump’s presidency from 2016 to 2020 — the deficits ballooning like they were on steroids, the erosion of American values through the federal response to the COVID pandemic, and the January 6th insurrection — it feels eerie to see Donald Trump polling so close to Kamala Harris in 2024.

How does he even start the race with 220 electoral votes?

How does he begin with 50 million votes?

Yes, that’s the number — Trump is starting with 50 million votes this year. This isn’t the coalition that voted for George Bush, nor the coalition that supported John McCain or Mitt Romney. This is a very different coalition. It took certain parts of the Republican base, shaved a little from the other side, and parted ways with some — but it is extremely different from the coalitions Republicans have won with in the past.

The Four Pillars of the Trump-MAGA Coalition

For each of these four pillars, Donald Trump has something to offer. This is where his strength comes from, and this is why MAGA backers and the billionaire circle believe they can continue the same strategy post-Trump. It is dangerous beyond measure, which is why we need to dive a little deeper today to understand the mechanics of this coalition.

Men Without a College Degree:

Donald Trump’s misogyny is no accident; it is a careful ploy. If you look at the census data, you’ll notice that the total adult male population in the United States was 121 million in 2020. With an average educational attainment rate of 36%, that leaves a staggering 77 million men without a college degree.

Trump won a lion’s share of this bloc that turned out to vote in 2020–65%. MAGA wants to keep increasing this number to a point where it can breach the Democratic coalition.

It’s not a bad idea on paper, but the assumption that they can turn out these voters in large numbers is easier said than done. It’s a very difficult task. You can’t make them hate the government, lose trust in the electoral process, and still somehow convince them to show up at the polls. On top of that, Trump cannot fool 100% of this group, so he keeps falling short. But even so, this is the base from which the Trump-MAGA group operates.

Donald Trump hits anywhere between 15 to 20 million votes from this bloc.

Christian Right

The second one on the list is the Christian right and any one who dreams of turning the United States into a Christian land.

Just these two cohorts — men and the Christian right — are enough to get Donald Trump closer to the 35 million mark. There is considerable overlap between this group and another key bloc: reflexive GOP voters who have supported the party for decades. These voters, for the life of them, cannot imagine voting for a Democrat. They’re used to voting Republican. They may not like Trump, but they just can’t bring themselves to switch sides.

I am bundling this group with senior voters and women without a college degree. This will easily run up the numbers across the country to another 15 million. This number is an assumption, but I am confident that I am hitting the ball park at the lower end of the spectrum.

So, men without a degree (20 million)+ Christian right (15 million) and reflexive GOP voters (15 million) = 50 million.

There’s no need to explain what Trump offers to the billionaire class. He lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% and gave them a one-time tax break that allowed corporations to bring back money parked overseas. Trump promised that corporations would invest this money, leading to a massive economic boom.

What actually happened?

A massive boom for corporate shareholders, as companies used the repatriated funds to kickstart one of the biggest share buyback periods in U.S. history. If you’re a billionaire shareholder, what’s not to love about Trump’s presidency? He delivered in 2017, and now he’s promising to do it again by lowering the corporate tax rate even further, from 21% to 15%. Sure, it’ll increase deficits, but that can be fixed if a dictatorship is installed. Just plunder Social Security, Medicare, FEMA, and any other government program that provides a safety net for the middle class.

So, there you have it — this is a “horses for courses” approach. For each group that supports Trump, he offers something the Democrats cannot. Can the Democrats offer the Christian right control over women? No. Can they offer billionaires more tax breaks? They won’t. Can they offer misogyny and hatred to economically struggling men? Absolutely not.

This is why Trump and the MAGA movement remain strong, despite the lies, the insurrection, the COVID mismanagement, and the chaos. Trump gives these groups something the Democrats can’t. As a result, they don’t care about the lies. In fact, many of them expect him to lie — and they’re perfectly fine with it.

How to stop this?

It’s not an easy task because Donald Trump’s baseline is very close to the halfway point of previous turnouts. Democrats must mobilize their voters and ensure that turnout does not dip. With a strong baseline like Trump’s, if turnout declines in certain states, he can edge his way to victory.

The only way to stay ahead of this coalition is to keep a cool head, get to work, and turn out voters who understand the threat Donald Trump and his backers pose to the country. Dems can win, but they cannot underestimate the strength of Trump and MAGA. That is exactly what President Biden ended up doing. He chose to govern while Trump kept playing politics. Biden should have remained in campaign mode throughout the four years, spending much more time rallying people, explaining his actions, and staying on the offensive.

It is a challenge to govern when the other side wants to prioritize politics over effective governance. But this is the reality of the state. The challenges facing the country and the Democrats are very different from what they faced in the past. The Dems know that not only their party but democracy itself is at risk. So, certain things must change. Democrats need to alter the way they communicate with people. They should rally their voters while also reaching out to Republican voters.

Kamala Harris seems to understand this nuance. In that regard, she has performed much better than President Biden. This likely explains why her lead appears more durable and significantly stronger than Biden’s throughout the year.

Let us also accept one more thing: Even if Donald Trump leaves the political scene after a loss, the MAGA movement is not going to go away. The trajectory has already been mapped. They will target economically struggling men, and they can always rely on the Christian right. The billionaire GOP backers of Trump are grooming J.D. Vance to take up the role. So, things are already afoot among the backroom players to carry the anti-democracy movement forward.

A Kamala Harris victory would be a significant step in the right direction.

Let us hope she wins, and let us also hope that she stays on the offensive to bring men without college degrees back into the Democratic fold. It must be done. She needs to mobilize all the Democratic talent and firepower at her disposal and figure out a way to limit MAGA’s strength in that area. If she can break that stranglehold, the anti-democratic movement will die over time, and the wannabe oligarchs will become quiet on their own.

Only a bottom up approach can fix this.