How Carney Is Rewiring the Western Alliance

Trump’s chaos isn’t going unanswered. It’s just being met with strategy, not soundbites.

The question was how long it would take for the Trump administration’s economic investments to show up in the data.

Donald Trump, in true form, answered with an unrelated outburst: Obama only wants to hire “DEI” and “woke” people to build his presidential center in Chicago, instead of, as Trump put it, “good, hard, tough construction workers that I love.”

“It’s a disaster,” he said.

“He(Obama) said something to the effect of ‘I only want DEI. I only want woke.’ He wants woke people to build it. Well, he got woke people. … He’s got a library that’s a disaster.”

Then came the kicker: Trump offered to help.

“I don’t like that happening, because I think it’s bad for the presidency,” he added. “I would love to help him with it.”

That, I believe, was the moment my hand went to my head while watching Trump’s first meeting with newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. And that, in itself, was a huge victory for Carney: his meeting with the U.S. president didn’t dissolve into a meme. Because once that happens, the optics-first presidency has a way of spiraling into the worst possible version of itself.

There was little chance of anything major coming out of the meeting. It was Carney checking a box, yes, but a necessary one. He’d already made his rounds in Europe, building momentum with the continent’s leaders. He couldn’t afford to wait much longer before visiting Washington. The trip was about presence, not results—an introduction, a signal.

Not that Carney wasn’t aware of this.

“Do not expect white smoke out of that meeting,” he told Canadians before leaving to the United States. The media spun it as an attempt to manage expectations. Naa. That wasn’t expectation management. That was a straight-up warning: expect nothing. And he was right. That was exactly the mindset of the Canadian delegation when they landed in D.C.—and they left smiling.

One senior member of the Canadian team told Reuters the meeting was “a 10 out of 10.”

What surprised me more, though, was the level of nonchalance still pulsing through this White House. The U.S. stock market is in a record-breaking tailspin. It's as if each morning it wakes up and wonders what fresh new decline record it can break. It hunts for a headline to confirm its doom-loop bias—and then commits.

It’s that bad.

A good meeting with Canada—just a stable, respectful showing—could’ve nudged that dynamic. The White House didn’t have to roll out the red carpet, but some level of seriousness wouldn’t have hurt. Fine, play the tariff games if you must. But your eyes are on that 10% universal tariff anyway. Everything else is smoke. So why not keep the country that imports more U.S. products than anyone else in the loop?

You’re not walking out of the China fight cleanly. It’s a slippery slope, and your footing’s already gone. Logic says: pull Canada a little closer.

But nope.

Politico captured the attitude perfectly:

1. “Just another world leader coming to visit. One of many,” said one White House official.

2. “No bells and whistles for the new guy,” said another.

3. “It’s really just to check a box,” a third added.

So Carney came, and Carney went. A clean, quiet win. But that was just the front-facing moment. The real story is what happens now—because while Trump re-emerges with noise and disruption, Carney is beginning to shape the landscape with something more durable. And if you’re watching closely, you can already see the impact. Not loud, not flashy, but precise. It’s design.

Trump has an enormous capacity to destabilize the G7, and Europe still tends to respond out of fear. It looks outward before it looks inward. That’s its reflex. Most of the disruption Trump brings isn’t military—it’s economic, and it’s intentional. Tariffs, trade threats, currency noise, regulatory unpredictability—he overwhelms the system with volatility and waits for the weakest structures to fold under the pressure.

That partly worked the first time.

But this time, there’s a different variable: Carney.

Mark Carney doesn’t carry the baggage Trudeau carried around. And that’s the difference. You could’ve had that same meeting with Trudeau two years ago and it would’ve ended in vague language and some bad theatrics. Trump will always go out of his way to do something.

With Carney, it’s different.

If Trump goes full tariffs on Canada and Europe—and it’s still an “if,” but one we can’t ignore—don’t expect some big joint declaration. Canada and Europe won’t move together out in the open. But they’ll move together anyway.

That’s the Carney effect. He’s likely to respond with something slow, deliberate, and calibrated. No flashy headlines, no made-for-TV moments—just quiet, relentless pressure. Canada’s deeply tied to the U.S., so he has to manage the Trump administration while slowly shifting trade toward Europe. That’s where this is headed: chip away at the U.S. dependency, build up the European interlock.