House Moves Toward Dems

Harris Boosts Democrats’ Momentum in the House

The one number Trump and MAGA world desperately wanted — a dip in job numbers that could assist the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and claim victory in the fight against inflation without hurting the economy — didn’t materialize.

All they can come up with is the usual MAGA attack on Truth. One GOP Senator who dreams of leading this country some day called the job numbers fake.

In the alternate universe they’ve created, Mississippi, a state they’ve governed for 20 consecutive years, would be number one in the U.S. by GDP per capita. In reality, it’s last. They won’t mention Mississippi’s high school dropout rates, but they’ve mastered the art of keeping Democrats on the defensive about the economy, despite the Democrats’ actual achievements.

That’s the kind of record anyone can run on and win. But Democrats have never effectively communicated what they have accomplished and what they plan to do in the future. They can’t convey their message, and they never learn.

Even a small dip in job numbers would have fueled the MAGA narrative that the economy is teetering on the brink of disaster and a downturn is just around the corner. They would start it, and their amplifiers would pick up on it. Right-wing billionaires and CEOs would take care of the rest.

How many CEOs warned us right before the midterms in 2022 that the economy was headed for a crash? What role did that play in helping the GOP win the House? The media told us we were heading into a red tsunami, and one prominent Republican kept insisting it would be a bloodbath for the Democrats.

Screenshot from NPR. Red sketch added by me

Just the kind of headline the GOP wanted to hear weeks before the 2022 midterms. I don’t blame NPR; they are a good source. But that headline landed on their table because of the constant drumbeat from MAGA, GOP, media, and CEOs claiming the country was headed in the wrong direction.

So, there was every reason to assume that this combination punch, which Democrats suffer every election cycle, would have resurfaced had the United States reported a dip in job growth. Instead, the U.S. added 254,000 jobs in September 2024, which is a full 100,000 more than expected.

The jobless rate fell to 4.1%, while wages increased by 4%. Of course, there is a side effect to this report: it will allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at their next meeting, scheduled for the first week of November. That outcome will immediately impact the stock market, and the market’s behavior will have a significant bearing on 401(k) accounts.

You simply cannot ignore the following headline; it is a natural response. The market does not move based on nonsense. It does sometimes react to irrational fears, but those are rare occasions, such as overreacting to a pandemic and then overcorrecting during the recovery.

That is not where we are today. MAGA can keep screaming that the job numbers are fake, but the market won’t give a millisecond of thought to those lies. It has already absorbed the news, and the MAGA plan to regain control over economic issues is not going to succeed.

Trump and the GOP are losing the traditional advantage they once enjoyed over Democrats on economic matters. What makes this slippage even worse is that it is happening at an extremely rapid pace among women.

An American University poll, shared first with POLITICO, found that a majority of women trust Harris over Trump to address inflation and bring down the cost of living. Another 46 percent prefer Harris over Trump to handle the economy, while 38 percent prefer Trump on it.

More than 60 percent of suburban women said they felt pessimistic about the economy when surveyed in 2023 and 2022, but that fell to 40 percent in the poll’s latest data.

Harris has “eliminated Trump’s advantage on inflation, narrowed it on the economy more generally and widened that gap with women,” said Lindsay Vermeyen, who conducted the survey. “It is really indicative of the fact that communications are breaking through, and her appeals to voters, or moderate voters, are starting to break through as well.”

If the GOP was waiting for an October surprise, they have it now. It’s just not the surprise they wanted, nor is it what their billionaire backers desired. The U.S. economy is on solid ground, and they cannot pin the Democrats to the mat by injecting fear about the future.

What makes this even worse for the Republicans is that Harris isn’t even trying to tell people that the Biden administration has done a great job on the economic front, which they have. Instead, she is focused on explaining to Americans how she will improve their lives in the next four years if she gets the White House lease.

That is exactly what needs to be done. People are not going to vote for you based on what you did in the last four years; they will vote for you based on what they believe you will do in the next four. I think Harris has momentum on the economic front, and her ability to communicate her thoughts to Americans will allow her to keep Trump, MAGA, the GOP, and right-wing billionaires boxed in on economic issues.

This is extremely positive because since July 26, Donald Trump has not led the national poll for even a single day. Heck, he hasn’t even tied with Harris for a single day.

The MAGA amplifiers told us that Kennedy Jr. dropping out of the race would change the dynamics and that Trump would experience a huge bump in the numbers. Nope. It did nothing to stop the momentum behind Kamala Harris.

Little by little, the effects of Kamala Harris taking control of the economic issue are filtering down the ballot.

The generic polls for the House are tracking Kamala Harris’s national polling numbers. After breaking away from the GOP’s numbers at the end of July, the figures are now standing a full two points apart. This must have some effect, right?

Oh, yes, it did.

The race for the House started with nearly two dozen seats in the gray zone. Now, there are only 12 remaining. Most of the seats that vanished from the gray zone have shifted toward the Democrats.

The House no longer looks like a toss-up; it appears to be a clear Democratic win. The margin will still be tight, but Democrats should win the House in 2024.

Screenshot from RacetoWH

Yesterday, the Cook Political Report moved five House races toward the Democrats. “The latest updates in Democrats’ favor come after Cook shifted half a dozen House races toward Democrats and two toward Republicans last month, with 15 toss-up contests for seats currently held by Republicans and 11 for seats held by Democrats.”

A majority of the movement in House races is coming from the Midwest. If you’re wondering why, don’t be. The answer is in the following chart.

Kamala Harris is painting the House blue.

That’s why.