Holding the Line: How Starmer and Macron Are Quietly Saving the West

Britain and France are running the defense that’s keeping Ukraine in the fight.

By yesterday evening, some of my journalistic contacts in Europe were angry. Very angry.

These are serious people—honest, principled, and the kind who believe democracies need to hold their ground when tested. But under that anger was a familiar frustration: Europe had drawn a red line and then hesitated to enforce it.

On Sunday, European leaders gave Putin a 24-hour deadline to accept a ceasefire or face sanctions. Monday came and went—no sanctions. My German contacts were especially furious. They saw this not just as a failure of policy but as a dangerous setback for their new Chancellor. If you start your tenure by drawing a red line and quietly erasing it, you set yourself on a slippery slope. And everyone remembers how perfectly that slope played out when Obama kept redrawing his red lines over Putin and Assad’s atrocities in Syria—talking a good game, but never playing one.

A lot of them pointed straight at that example.

And I get it.

But I also think their past experience is shaping their current calculations a bit too much. There’s a key difference this time—Trump jumped straight into the middle of it, pushing for direct talks between Russia and Ukraine after the EU delivered its 24 hour ultimatum to the Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Trump even offered to join the negotiations.

As a result, Europe has now adopted a dual-track approach. Just a few hours ago, they sanctioned the Russian Black Sea fleet, blacklisting around 200 oil tankers and dozens of Russian individuals. To be honest, this doesn’t come anywhere close to the sweeping sanctions they had promised to impose on Russia—but that’s not a sign of weakness; it’s entirely by design.

Had Europe slammed down those “massive sanctions” on Monday night, it would have handed Putin the perfect excuse to walk away from the talks. And while it’s becoming clearer by the hour that he has no real intention of attending anyway, why hand him a convenient narrative?

So for now, I’m inclined to side with Europe’s decision to hold back a few more days. The sanctions aren’t off the table; they’re simply being timed for maximum impact. All signs suggest a coordinated strike is in the works with the United States. Whether Macron can actually bring Washington fully on board is anyone’s guess—but he’s decided to try.

While European capitals went to work, Macron used the moment to reposition France—and by extension, the European Union—as a power center ready to play harder in both economic and security terms. In a major prime-time television interview, he made two things clear: sanctions are still on the table, and France’s nuclear deterrent might soon be part of a broader European conversation.

On sanctions, Macron confirmed that the European Commission is finalizing a new package targeting financial services and oil—specifically secondary sellers—in close coordination with the United States. Macron didn’t put a precise timeline on it, but his phrasing—“in the coming days”—suggests Europe is keeping the pressure dialed in, even if it hasn’t pulled the trigger yet.

Then came the bigger play.

Macron openly floated the idea of France extending its nuclear umbrella to European allies—a conversation that hasn’t surfaced this seriously in public since the Cold War. He was careful to set conditions: France wouldn’t foot the bill for other countries’ security, and any final decision on deploying nuclear weapons would remain strictly under French presidential authority. I have my own issues with that proposal, but we can cross the unfair bridge another day. Now’s not the time to test the span. It can wait. But the message to European allies worried about Trump’s NATO commitment was clear: if Washington steps back, Paris is ready to step up.

Macron also reinforced his long-standing position on Europe’s strategic autonomy. While acknowledging that Europe still needs U.S. forces on its eastern flank for now, he made it plain that the continent can’t afford to rely indefinitely on American security guarantees. In his words, “We would be irresponsible if we didn’t organize ourselves in the next five to ten years.”

For now, the sanctions clock is still ticking. But make no mistake—Macron is shaping the battlefield before the next round of economic blows land.

Some of you may have noticed that the Western response to handling Trump and Putin at the same time keeps swinging between Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron. When the Oval Office fiasco broke out on February 28th and the Trump administration veered sharply in favor of Russia, it was British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his National Security Adviser, Jonathan Powell, who stepped in to contain the damage. They held the alliance together and did the hard work of pulling Trump back into the Western orbit, if only temporarily.

But it didn’t last. In mid-April, Trump veered off course again—this time asking Ukraine to surrender Crimea and pushing for a deal that would have handed Russia exactly what it wanted. That’s when Macron stepped in. He took the reins, confronted the White House directly, and once again pulled the administration back in line.

This isn’t some diplomatic coincidence. It’s a calculated strategy. Starmer and Macron are alternating roles deliberately, refusing to give Trump—or the pro-Putin faction inside the White House—a clear, fixed target. And yes, let’s be clear: there are two factions inside the White House right now. One wants Putin to win. The other is trying to hold the line and prevent it.

I have no doubt that Starmer and Macron are coordinating this effort closely. Each knows exactly when to act and what role to play.

And as long as they keep holding that line, Ukraine’s odds will keep improving.

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