Harris Gets a Massive Break with Hispanics, as Trump Stuggles with White Men and Women
It is all happening at the same time
Finally, finally, finally! It felt like an eternity to get here. My heart was in my throat watching Kamala Harris struggle to boost Democratic support among Hispanic voters, trying to push past the 55-point mark and reach 60.
It’s crucial to keep Donald Trump in the mid-30s with Hispanic voters, ideally under 35. A 25-point gap with him in the Hispanic vote could be decisive. The level of support both parties have with Hispanic voters is a critical factor this election cycle because one in every two voters added to the rolls in the last four years is Hispanic.
Hispanics now make up the second-largest voting bloc in the U.S., with 36.2 million voters. A 1-point difference equals 362,000 votes. How they divide between Harris and Trump will have a huge impact on the outcomes of the presidential, Senate, and congressional races across the country.
I don’t want to see mobs storming Capitol Hill, beating officers with poles, breaking fingers, and someone calling it a “love fest.” The best way to put an end to that kind of chaos is by winning — and winning big. That’s why it was so crucial for Harris to match Biden’s 2020 numbers with Hispanic voters.
I wasn’t expecting her to reach this number. I was thinking she might surpass 55 and get closer to 58, which would be a reasonable position. With Harris gaining ground among women and educated voters, she has some cushion to fall slightly behind Biden’s 2020 numbers with certain demographics.
It seems all the effort to connect with Hispanic voters — moving away from the Democratic playbook of treating them primarily as immigrants and instead recognizing them as Americans with common concerns, like securing the border and improving economic opportunities — has paid off. Polls now show Kamala Harris starting to reach the critical 60-point support level among Hispanic voters.
It’s been a real slog since February. Back then, Donald Trump had a one-point lead over President Biden. Since then, point by point, the numbers have shifted, and we’re now looking at a 25-point gap in favor of Harris over Trump.
The trend is clearly working in Harris’s favor, and she’s likely at or very close to her ceiling. She has peaked at the perfect time as votes are being locked in across the country. Georgia and North Carolina continue to break early voting records, with nearly 15 million votes already cast across the country — approaching 10% of the 2020 turnout.
The odds of reaching 2020 turnout levels look extremely promising, and we’re likely to stay slightly ahead of that pace. Higher turnout will benefit Kamala Harris.
As if that weren’t bad enough for Team Trump, it’s becoming increasingly clear that he’s hitting his ceiling with his core base. He’s falling behind his own 2020 numbers with white women and white men without a college degree.
The story of the week should have been: as Harris continues to strengthen the Democratic voter coalition, Donald Trump is struggling with white men and women across the country.
But unfortunately, the media isn’t giving it much attention. Some outlets are, but overall, they’re portraying the race as a dead heat.
Yeah, right. How does that even make sense? It doesn’t. Even the polls aren’t showing that.
The electoral college map I created on the right side of the image was based on data points presented by Politico, using the survey they referenced for the headline on the left. They relied on a Washington Post-Schar School poll to insinuate that the race is in a dead heat.
Trump leads in Arizona (49 percent to 46 percent) and North Carolina (50 percent to 47 percent), and Harris leads in Georgia (51 percent to 47 percent), Michigan (49 percent to 47 percent), Pennsylvania (49 percent to 47 percent) and Wisconsin (50 percent to 47 percent). Nevada is tied at 48 percent each.
So, I took the data at face value: I left Nevada in the grey zone, gave Arizona and North Carolina to Donald Trump, and assigned Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to Kamala Harris.
And voilà, this is what I got.
The media can see the polls, but the numbers don’t support the narrative they’re pushing. All they can say is that in the battleground states, neither candidate is polling outside the margin of error, and Harris looks reasonably set to win the majority of these key states.
With national polls showing Harris gaining among Latino voters, Trump struggling with white voters, and Senate races in critical battlegrounds leaning in favor of Democrats, the race still remains in Kamala Harris’s favor with less than two weeks until the election.
Why do you think the media is doing this? Is it reflexive blindness?
Well it’s working. I watched the markets. Mistake number 1. Then I watched the main polling sites. Mistake number 2. Then shifted to Twitter. Mistake number 3. The best approach has been to look for data driven models that look at voting trends. EV, gender, etc. I feel a bit better but I do think to quote Simon Rosenberg I much rather be using than them.