Some information is obviously public. Other information will only be shared in confidence by the Ukrainians with their trustworthy close allies.
I think it quite possible that future historians may well consider it the worst blunder among all the blunders that the current US government is committing that it has removed the US from the circle of potential recipients of such valuable information and related technologies.
The Americans are the first to receive such information: consider that most of the military technology is American. Do you think they don’t have the data on the use of their “toys”?
Sure, I would expect information sharing in direct context of the use of US-made systems to be (either explicitly or implicitly) part of the deal that the Biden administration made with Ukraine. A deal that the Trump administration seems to be walking away from.
I think that the relative importance of US-made systems is decreasing due to increasing capabilities and increasing mass of what the Ukrainians are developing and producing themselves, as well as lack of willingness on the part of the current US government to keep Ukraine supplied at a rate that is similar to the rate at which things are used up. I expect that some of the resulting gaps will be really painful, while others may be filled by systems that are made in Europe outside Ukraine.
There is no reason why the US under the current government, while actively dismantling its defences against Russian spying, would be trusted with any information related to European-made weapon systems.
What I think could really be transformative in a revolutionary way is when one side gains the capability of making it effectively impossible for the other side to supply their front line.
“And the message is unmistakable: In this war, heavy armor and long-range artillery alone won’t save you. If Russia doesn’t adapt quickly, it’s going to keep losing million-dollar systems to drones that cost a fraction of that price—and can find them wherever they try to hide.”
One thing is for certain, Ukraine is changing the way future wars will be fought, and this should be of great importance for the super powers since $500k drones will be come even cheaper in the near future. It almost reminds me of the the various weapon systems the US deployed during the Soviet—Afghan War in the 1980’s: low intensity conflict (guerrilla warfare), using cheap weapon systems to bankrupt the Soviets.
Furthermore, a Ukrainian friend sent me some video’s of Kamikaze drones circling from above, and following Russian tanks to their warehouses and then destroying millions in Russian tanks, trucks and munitions.
Bottom line, drone attacks are becoming a superpowers worst nightmare, as swarming attacks could sink Aircraft carriers and battle ships in an instant, during future wars.
Take notice China, because when the baton is passed on to you, it won’t be easy pickings. Just some thoughts…:)
As the range of what can be destroyed by drones is increasing, and so is Ukraine’s production capability, and the cost of producing various types drones is decreasing, does that mean that it might soon be possible, at a justifiable cost/benefit ratio, to destroy individual trucks that transport military supplies via the “land bridge” towards Crimea, i.e. the road connection along the Azov sea coast?
Hi Shankar, thanks for your piece. I want Ukraine to develop their own microwave systems that down enemy drones. Combined with their offensive tactics that will ensure Russia never has a moment of peace while they remain in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s ability to leverage modern C4ISR capabilities to locate, target, and neutralize Russian assets efficiently doesn’t bode well for U.S. concepts like ACE and DMO that seek to spread and quickly relocate forces, since the PLA will likely find them again quickly. If interested, I track the PLA’s evolving C4ISR architecture in my newsletter and will be publishing on its spaced-based ISR this week. https://ordersandobservations.substack.com
I’m grateful that Ukraine is doing his well. I will be grateful when this is all in the rear view mirror and life can figure out what normal is again. 🇺🇦💗🇺🇦
Agree. Shankar is a brilliant resource for us to really understand the geo political war game that’s afoot in Ukraine and the stakes that we will face if Ukraine fails to defend western values. He sees the incredible courage and inventiveness of the Ukrainian people and gives credit where it’s due, in the trenches of a war that could go global if Ukraine isn’t successful. War is a weapon evolution and advantages shift quickly as one adapts to the others strike force, a technological war field. . The sad irony is Russia is now battling their own inventive military brilliance in the field over philosophy of freedom, freedom making it clear who is most determined.
I’ve long believed that the war in Ukraine is offering invaluable insight into how new technologies are transforming modern warfare.
We owe the Ukrainian people a lasting debt for the depth of experience and knowledge they are sharing with the world.
Some information is obviously public. Other information will only be shared in confidence by the Ukrainians with their trustworthy close allies.
I think it quite possible that future historians may well consider it the worst blunder among all the blunders that the current US government is committing that it has removed the US from the circle of potential recipients of such valuable information and related technologies.
The Americans are the first to receive such information: consider that most of the military technology is American. Do you think they don’t have the data on the use of their “toys”?
Sure, I would expect information sharing in direct context of the use of US-made systems to be (either explicitly or implicitly) part of the deal that the Biden administration made with Ukraine. A deal that the Trump administration seems to be walking away from.
I think that the relative importance of US-made systems is decreasing due to increasing capabilities and increasing mass of what the Ukrainians are developing and producing themselves, as well as lack of willingness on the part of the current US government to keep Ukraine supplied at a rate that is similar to the rate at which things are used up. I expect that some of the resulting gaps will be really painful, while others may be filled by systems that are made in Europe outside Ukraine.
There is no reason why the US under the current government, while actively dismantling its defences against Russian spying, would be trusted with any information related to European-made weapon systems.
Thanks Shankar … you are the only observer giving us these detailed reports and analysis from Ukraine.
At this rate Ukraine will have the best equipped, functional and highly trained Army in the world! And they WILL win!
We are going to shortly see the first combined arms drone attack which will change war just as General Monash's first combined arms attack did in WWI.
yes. pieces are moving in place.
What I think could really be transformative in a revolutionary way is when one side gains the capability of making it effectively impossible for the other side to supply their front line.
“And the message is unmistakable: In this war, heavy armor and long-range artillery alone won’t save you. If Russia doesn’t adapt quickly, it’s going to keep losing million-dollar systems to drones that cost a fraction of that price—and can find them wherever they try to hide.”
One thing is for certain, Ukraine is changing the way future wars will be fought, and this should be of great importance for the super powers since $500k drones will be come even cheaper in the near future. It almost reminds me of the the various weapon systems the US deployed during the Soviet—Afghan War in the 1980’s: low intensity conflict (guerrilla warfare), using cheap weapon systems to bankrupt the Soviets.
Furthermore, a Ukrainian friend sent me some video’s of Kamikaze drones circling from above, and following Russian tanks to their warehouses and then destroying millions in Russian tanks, trucks and munitions.
Bottom line, drone attacks are becoming a superpowers worst nightmare, as swarming attacks could sink Aircraft carriers and battle ships in an instant, during future wars.
Take notice China, because when the baton is passed on to you, it won’t be easy pickings. Just some thoughts…:)
As the range of what can be destroyed by drones is increasing, and so is Ukraine’s production capability, and the cost of producing various types drones is decreasing, does that mean that it might soon be possible, at a justifiable cost/benefit ratio, to destroy individual trucks that transport military supplies via the “land bridge” towards Crimea, i.e. the road connection along the Azov sea coast?
if it gets that far, then the Russian frontline would have already gotten messed up by that time.
Hi Shankar, thanks for your piece. I want Ukraine to develop their own microwave systems that down enemy drones. Combined with their offensive tactics that will ensure Russia never has a moment of peace while they remain in Ukraine.
I see that the US drones shot down by Houthis were valued at over $20 million each. Why does everything the US military builds cost so much!
Love it! It's about time they got some offense to help carry the load. Excellent.
as the ad for tesco says every little thing helps
Ukraine’s ability to leverage modern C4ISR capabilities to locate, target, and neutralize Russian assets efficiently doesn’t bode well for U.S. concepts like ACE and DMO that seek to spread and quickly relocate forces, since the PLA will likely find them again quickly. If interested, I track the PLA’s evolving C4ISR architecture in my newsletter and will be publishing on its spaced-based ISR this week. https://ordersandobservations.substack.com
I’m grateful that Ukraine is doing his well. I will be grateful when this is all in the rear view mirror and life can figure out what normal is again. 🇺🇦💗🇺🇦
Agree. Shankar is a brilliant resource for us to really understand the geo political war game that’s afoot in Ukraine and the stakes that we will face if Ukraine fails to defend western values. He sees the incredible courage and inventiveness of the Ukrainian people and gives credit where it’s due, in the trenches of a war that could go global if Ukraine isn’t successful. War is a weapon evolution and advantages shift quickly as one adapts to the others strike force, a technological war field. . The sad irony is Russia is now battling their own inventive military brilliance in the field over philosophy of freedom, freedom making it clear who is most determined.