Fortnight to early voting: The tilting battlegrounds
From polls to results
Early voting was supposed to start today in Pennsylvania, but due to court cases, the ballots remain unprinted and the start date will be pushed back. Nevertheless, a wave of states, including Illinois, Minnesota, Mississippi, South Dakota, Vermont, and Virginia, will open for early voting before the end of this month, with more states joining in the first two weeks of October.
Every pundit who reads the polls will add a disclaimer saying, “If the election were to be held today.” This will become increasingly relevant for millions of voters over the next 45 days. I believe it’s crucial to examine the state of the race across the country.
Typically, when I analyze the polls, I start by considering things from the Trump campaign’s perspective and then mix and match. This time, however, I will focus solely on the Harris campaign and view the situation through their lens.
The traditionally blue states, the ones Hillary Clinton won in 2016, still appear safely blue, except for Nevada. This is Hillary’s map.
I am going to remove Nevada from this list, which brings us to the following map after adjusting the numbers for the 2024 Electoral College changes. Kamala Harris will begin the race with 226 Electoral College votes.
She has a strong lead in all of these states, which have reliably voted blue for decades. I’m not expecting any surprises like those we saw in Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016. New Hampshire poses a small threat, but it only has four Electoral College votes. Not enticing for Trump.
Harris has visited the state, and Trump has made no significant investment or effort to turn it red. Down-ballot races in New Hampshire are leaning blue, so Harris is likely to win the state. Therefore, I’m keeping her baseline map at 226 votes.
In the rest of the map, Harris continues to show enough strength in Michigan and Wisconsin. The trend looks stable enough to suggest that these two states are almost locked in for her.
Due to a lack of campaign funds and the sizable lead Kamala Harris holds in these two states, the Trump campaign appears to have eased off in Michigan and Wisconsin. As of September 4, 2024, the Harris campaign has outspent the Trump campaign by $80.7 million in Michigan and $41.8 million in Wisconsin.
I don’t expect this trend to change, primarily because Harris holds a solid cash advantage over Trump. As a result, Trump has narrowed his focus to a select group of states. I’m adding Michigan and Wisconsin to Harris’s column.
This will bring Kamala Harris to 251 Electoral College votes.
If she wins Pennsylvania, the race is technically over. However, Harris cannot assume that Pennsylvania is a done deal. Donald Trump remains well within striking distance in the state, and I expect him to stay close behind her all the way until Election Day.
The real challenge for Trump this election cycle is that he needs to win almost every remaining state. Losing even one or two could give Harris the edge she needs to win. With Harris building a strong lead in national polls, nearing the critical 50% mark, and solidifying support among key demographics like women and educated voters, the odds of Trump running the table are extremely low.
Kamala Harris now needs to secure the last 19 Electoral College votes from the following list:
Nevada-6
Arizona-11
Georgia-16
North Carolina-16
Pennsylvania-19
Trump is putting everything on the line to win Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. If he loses even one, he’s finished. In all three states, both candidates are running neck and neck. Trump isn’t entirely out of the race, but his prospects aren’t looking bright.
Winning just one must win state is difficult to achieve when you’re running behind on cash, but three must-wins??
As a result, I’m sticking to my forecast for this year:
Kamala Harris will win the 2024 Presidential Election.