First it was 24 hrs. Then it become 100 days. Now it is 180 days.
Team Trump keeps expanding the timeline to end the Russian invasion
It was tempting to dismiss Donald Trump’s claim during the 2024 presidential campaign—that he would end the Russian invasion in 24 hours—as hyperbole or rhetoric.
But I couldn’t.
Despite Elon Musk and Steve Bannon despising each other while vying for influence in the MAGA world, they find common ground when it comes to sacrificing Ukraine under the wheels of Putin’s brutal agenda.
Misinformation is not just important but absolutely essential to right-wing movements worldwide. And no one wields it as effectively as Putin, whose system—rooted in KGB legacy and supported by an army of online trolls—spreads disinformation on a global scale. Without this ecosystem, MAGA and other far-right movements would lose much of their momentum.
It is a multi-billion-dollar machine that Putin and the KGB have built over the years. They have painstakingly cultivated weeds around the world to spread their influence. This massive ecosystem serves as a powerful engine fueling right-wing movements.
For Steve Bannon and other right-wing figures, MAGA is a lucrative enterprise. For Musk, the influx of misinformation into the West serves his interests. At their core, the drivers and boosters of MAGA view Putin as a critical tool to sustain their right-wing apparatus. In their calculus, Ukraine is a small price to pay to keep their hate-fueled machine running. Against this backdrop, Trump’s assertion that he could end the war in 24 hours became much harder to dismiss.
My hope rested on the sensible elements within the GOP—those who had long worked alongside the Biden administration to support Ukraine. They had demonstrated a steady hand, and I believed they would ensure Trump didn’t veer off course.
But then House Speaker Mike Johnson replaced Rep. Mike Turner, a veteran intelligence expert, as Chair of the powerful Intelligence Committee, appointing a right winger instead. It was yet another setback for the seasoned, pragmatic voices in the Republican Party.
Even so, this group managed to extend Trump’s expected timeline for ending the Russian invasion to six months. A small victory, perhaps, but a tenuous one.
Steve Bannon, confirmed this yesterday. He stated, “I’m going nuts right now to make sure there’s something on Monday, an announcement. Because you have Kellogg saying it will take 100 days, and the old foreign policy establishment is saying six months.”
It’s Day 1 of the Trump administration, and the centerpiece of the agenda remains focused on immigration and mass deportation plans. Russia has been relegated to the back burner—and that, in itself, is a significant win. Had Trump set a clear tone on Russia heading into this day, there would have been only one direction the situation could have moved.
Fortunately, that didn’t happen.
Trump’s envoy to Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, along with his National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, made the rounds on Fox News, endlessly praising “strongman” Trump. At the same time, they subtly planted the narrative that the administration would need more time to “work things out” and ultimately prevail.
What should Ukraine and Europe do about this?
They should breathe a sigh of relief and take a page from Putin’s playbook: don’t worry about three or six months from now. The focus should be on managing the next 30 days effectively. Kick the problem can down the road, lie low, and avoid unnecessary noise. The negotiation timeline proposed by Keith Kellogg and Mike Waltz has erased any lingering doubts about the status of the weapons promised to Ukraine by the Biden administration.
The Trump administration is not going to block those deliveries. Most of the Biden administration's announcements came after September, with deliveries accelerating in November. Make no mistake—billions of dollars’ worth of weapons are still slated for delivery. These shipments will go through, and it will be Team Trump overseeing their arrival in Poland.
Those deliveries will suffice for now, so why rock the boat? Both Europe and Ukraine should keep quiet and let the next 30 days play out behind closed doors. That leaves sanctions—the issue I consider even more critical than U.S. weapons—as the final matter to address.
Fortunately, there is some excellent news on that front.
During his confirmation hearing this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant told Senators, “If I am confirmed, and if President Trump requests, I will be 100% on board for taking sanctions up to levels that would bring the Russian Federation to the table.”
Bessant’s statement is true. The U.S. Treasury still has plenty of tools to tighten the economic screws on Putin. His position aligns with where Trump’s National Security Advisor Mike Waltz appears to stand.
MAGA’s only potential weapon against Ukraine is the cost of the U.S. military aid it receives. However, Biden has already committed a significant supply of arms, enough to sustain Ukraine in a solid position this year. With Trump’s national security team working on a six-month timeline, they’re unlikely to lift sanctions anytime soon.
Moreover, Trump’s silence on Russia during the lead-up to his inauguration speaks volumes. For now, Ukraine has emerged victorious on Day 1 of the Trump administration.
This will do for now.
It is not the US’s decision when the war ends. There are plenty of other nations helping Ukraine. It’s President Zelenskyy’s and the Ukrainian people’s decision. Why do we always think we control everything?
I maintain that Europe can keep Ukraine fully armed without US participation. As well, Ukraine is accelerating its internal development of critical technology, including long range missiles and its own homegrown missile defense system.
Even of TFG were to lift sanctions, Europe would continue to isolate Russia, being full aware that the threat of war continues to sit to the east. They get that sanctions weaken Russia. There is no turning back at this point. They also understand that having the US on the same page is a luxury, not a requirement.