Europe Is Moving On. U.S. Weapons Are Losing Their Grip.

Dems cleaned up after 2008. They patched over 2020. But this time, there’s no fixing what Trump broke. It is done. Over

Denmark has made a decision. For months, it was kicked around like an international football—Greenland jokes, MAGA tantrums, and Donald Trump floating real estate fantasies while J.D. Vance cheered from the sidelines.

But this week, Copenhagen quietly moved. They're buying air-defense systems—exclusively from European manufacturers.

• NASAMS (Norway/US – short range – 30 km)

• VL MICA (France – short range – 20 km)

• IRIS-T SLM (Germany – medium range – 40 km)

The total order is close to $900 million.

Denmark has already earmarked around $5 billion for defense spending in 2025–2026. That number is likely to grow. Why? Because Denmark has access to the EU’s “ReArm Europe” loan facility. Structured as EU-issued loans with soft terms—up to 45-year maturities, 10-year grace periods, and no VAT—member states can borrow big, as long as 65% of the project value stays within the EU, EEA, or Ukraine.

There’s money. There’s urgency. There’s nearly a billion dollars’ worth of short-range air-defense on order. But one thing is conspicuously missing: the core of any serious air-defense posture.

Denmark hasn’t ordered a single long-range system.

Not one and they have none.

Europe’s two biggest weaknesses are air defense and medium-to-long-range missiles. First, defense. Second, offense. Europe has neither at a scale that can counter Russian capabilities. Across the entire continent, there are maybe 20 long-range air-defense units.

Ukraine— defending less than 500,000 square kilometers of land—can barely hold the line against Russian missile barrages, even with ten long-range air-defense batteries.

If Ukraine’s ten units are not enough to defend their land, then Europe’s 20 will not even scratch the bottom of the barrel to defend the entire continent. Putin has spotted this weakness. He knows the entire Western air-defense architecture is built on American Patriots. That’s why he ramped up missile production to over 100 per month.

There is a reason why the United States has 60 Patriot batteries.

• United States: 9.83 million km²

• Europe: 10.18 million km²

Europe needs more long range air-defense batteries than the United States and Denmark had every reason to order long-range air-defense systems. At minimum, they could’ve booked a single Patriot unit—just enough to secure a place in the four-year queue. Or they could’ve opted for the French-Italian SAMP/T, even if just symbolically.

But either move would’ve made headlines. “Denmark Snubs Trump” would have been the easy media spin—fuel for another MAGA outrage cycle.

Even a quiet SAMP/T order would’ve drawn attention. That production line has been quiet for years, with no clear delivery timelines. By skipping long-range systems altogether, Denmark chose strategic ambiguity. The official position is simple: We’re still evaluating Patriot/SAMP-T options.

It’s a line that buys time—and keeps the political temperature down.

But the real signal lies elsewhere—in the order for Germany’s IRIS-T SLM. Three years ago, that German made air-defense system was still a prototype. The German army didn’t even have a single operational battery. Then came the war. Berlin rushed the first units to Ukraine. Since then, IRIS-T deliveries have become routine.

Every six months, a new batch rolls into Ukraine.

No one outside the company knows exactly how many IRIS-T air-defense units Diehl Defence can produce, but the line is clearly active. As of now, ten countries—Germany, Egypt, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Latvia, Estonia, Ukraine, Norway, Austria, and Denmark—have placed orders. In 2024 alone, Diehl announced two production increases. Last year, the company said they were targeting a production rate of 10 units and 400 to 500 missiles per year.

But I think they’ve already surpassed their stated production targets.

NASAMS is a strong system. It’s a Norway–U.S. collaboration, widely deployed and field-proven. But there’s a limitation: the interceptors are American. That means any transfer or emergency use still needs U.S. approval. That dependency is real. With IRIS-T, there’s no such issue—Europe owns the full chain, from production to deployment.

This growing stack of IRIS-T orders is good news for Europe—and a clear signal to the U.S. defense industry. Fighter jets, long-range air defense, and electronic warfare are the last pillars of American dominance in the global arms market. If that gravitational center weakens, the rest follows. Slowly, maybe. But one contract at a time.

IRIS-T

And Germany? The momentum around IRIS-T is quietly creating pressure to take the next step. Last June, Diehl introduced the IRIS-T SLX—an extended-range version with an 80-kilometer reach. The company projected a 2–4 year timeline for deployment. But if the original IRIS-T rollout is any indication, it could arrive sooner than expected.

It’s doable. And it’s exactly the direction Germany should take.

Europe needs long-range air defense. It needs an alternative to the Patriot system—urgently. Either the continent pours everything into scaling SAMP/T, or Germany steps up and pushes the IRIS-T SLX into full deployment mode. But until that happens, the only option is to keep ramping up IRIS-T production—both launchers and missiles.

It’s the one system that works, is available, and is entirely in European hands.

1. A handful of Patriots.

2. A growing fleet of IRIS-T and NASAMS batteries.

That’s probably the formula for now. But Denmark’s decision to sidestep the Patriot altogether makes one thing unmistakably clear: American weapons have moved from must-have to maybe-if-you-have-to. From necessity to convenience. From the only game in town to just another option. And this has nothing to do with quality. Nothing to do with industrial capacity. It has everything to do with Donald Trump—and the chaos that follows him.

This isn’t the end of the American defense industry. Not yet. Denmark’s NASAMS order still means U.S.-built missiles will be shipped. But this is the blueprint for the future: move American systems to the periphery. Keep European production at the center. One day, you’ll have enough scale and reliability to say, thanks—but we’re good.

Every IRIS-T launcher that rolls off the line brings Europe closer to that day. Economies of scale kick in. Unit costs drop. Investment grows. Continuous development accelerates. More orders follow.

The cycle has started. A European air-defense ecosystem, independent of the United States, is already in motion.

Meanwhile, the U.S. just announced that—because of budget cuts—the Air Force will order only 24 F-35s this year, down from 48. But wait—didn’t they just increase defense spending? Oh yes, they did. So why are they slashing the crown jewel of U.S. military aviation?

Who knows? Maybe they will order a ton of software products from special companies owned by very very talented people. Either way, Trump and his crew are making a mess of America’s defense manufacturing base. And the companies? They’re just standing there watching it happen. Getting to the top is hard. Staying there is harder. Especially when your rivals are hungry.

Just ask Nokia.

Thanks to Trump and his policies, U.S. manufacturers aren’t just losing their wealthiest clients—they’re turning them into competitors.

Just think about this for a second.

IRIS-T went from prototype to reliable backbone in what—three years? That’s not just a weapons program. That’s an industrial shift. This is exactly why the Nokia–Apple comparison fits.

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