Estonia Just Declared War on Russia’s Shadow Fleet

No Flag, No Mercy

Estonia’s Coast Guard

“We will break any rule of law—and we dare you to stop us.” That’s been Russia’s message to the West since at least 2008. You could trace it back further, but it was after the Georgian war that the Kremlin dropped any pretense. Since then, Russia has not only flouted international norms—it has mocked them.

The oil trade is no exception. While Western nations dabbled in half-measures for years, it wasn’t until October 2024—under the leadership of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer—that the first real sanctions with teeth started landing. This time, it wasn’t symbolic. The sanctions targeted Russia’s global oil lifeline: its shadow fleet of tankers carrying crude across the world, in open defiance of Western export restrictions.

But as always, Russia didn’t blink.

With the new sanctions, those tankers began getting turned away—in India, China, and beyond. Not out of moral clarity, but out of fear: that the Biden administration might follow through with secondary sanctions on any port or provider servicing the blacklisted vessels.

And then came Trump.

With his overtures to the Kremlin and open disdain for the sanctions regime, Russia sensed an opening. The pressure eased. And just like that, the sanctioned tankers were back at sea—hauling crude, dodging restrictions, and reminding the world that Moscow always plays the long game.

Yesterday, Estonia called Russia’s bluff.

A sanctioned vessel—the Kiwala—was intercepted just outside Tallinn, as it sailed toward the Russian port of Ust-Luga. The ship had reportedly been operating under the flag of Djibouti, but at the time of interception, it wasn’t flying any flag at all—a clear violation of maritime law.