Dancing with the Devil
How do we end this dance?
War is never a one-sided, singular event. It is a multi-sided sequence of moves and countermoves. Treating your enemy like a fool—or analyzing him through hate-clouded lenses—only leads to weak, suboptimal decisions. Responses built on contempt are usually the ones most prone to failure.
You have to respect the devil—not to adopt his ways, but to understand him just enough to dismantle them. Yesterday, we explored how Ukraine’s position is strengthening and how the path to victory is beginning to emerge. The devil saw it too. No matter what happens over the next three quarters, Ukraine has a future it can build toward. The devil does not. What was once pitched as a three-day blitz has become an existential crisis—for him, and for the kingdom of deviant dreams he built.
Not long ago, I had identified three weak links in Ukraine’s defense posture:
Air defense
U.S. intelligence
Starlink
But due to recent developments—which I’ve detailed in an earlier story—I’ve removed Starlink from this list. It remains a vulnerability, but the odds of it being decisively exploited have dropped sharply. That leaves two:
Air defense
U.S. intelligence
Of these, only one offers Putin tactical leverage: Ukraine’s air defense. And here’s the added danger—if he targets this vulnerability, he can replicate the same strategy across Europe. Ukraine, at least, has built some respectable air-defense layers.
Estimates suggest Ukraine operates around 12 long-range air-defense systems, over a dozen German-made IRIS-T medium-range systems, and an unknown number of Norwegian NASAMS short-range systems. They also field two Swedish early warning aircraft. Yet they are tasked with defending nearly 400,000 square kilometers. It’s not nearly enough.
Now consider Europe. Ten million square kilometers of territory—and likely just 20 long-range air-defense systems to cover it. Meanwhile, global Patriot interceptor production sits at around 650 units per year.
The Kyiv Independent, citing the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), reported that Russia increased its production of Iskander-M ballistic missiles from 250 in 2023 to 700 in 2024. Ukraine’s GUR confirmed RUSI’s estimate.
One missile type. Just one. And it’s already outpacing global Patriot interceptor output.
Putin is gradually aligning wartime spending with oil revenues—but with around 10 million barrels sold daily, the war production isn’t going to stop on its own. His most likely pivot now is to mass missile production, compensating for Russia’s limitations in producing ground-based systems by simply throwing more manpower into the fight. He already has around 650,000 troops in Ukraine, and that number is only going to rise.
If this is his plan—and I believe it is—it’s not a bad one. It explains why he still thinks he can grind this out. He’ll escalate attacks on civilian infrastructure, trying to break Ukraine and bleed Europe by exploiting one key weakness: air defense.
On the ground, however, Ukraine and its allies have adapted impressively. The decision to massively scale drone production and field 300km-range missiles means that any increase in Russian troop numbers won’t shift the battlefield equation. When Ukraine hits artillery shell parity, Russian forces—regardless of size—will begin to struggle. It won’t be easy for them.
But the air-defense gap across both Ukraine and Europe will continue to hurt. Unless this hole is addressed, Putin will go on believing he still has a path to victory. The good news? We’ve narrowed him down to his last real advantage: missiles and what's left of his fighter jet fleet.
So far, Europe hasn’t moved decisively against this final pillar of Russian strength. And Putin knows it. If there’s one thing the world learned from the brief Iran–Israel war, it’s this: you can’t win by just blocking the arrows. You have to take out the archer.
Air-defense buys time—but it doesn’t end wars.
Yet Europe keeps running in circles, focused entirely on reinforcing Ukraine’s air-defense, while continuing to sidestep the one move that could change the game: sending more fighter jets. This is, in my view, their single strategic mistake this year—and they’re still doubling down on it. That has to change.
Just days ago, Zelensky met with French President Emmanuel Macron to discuss supplying more Mirage jets. So he’s moving. He understands the battlefield reality. But from the rest of Europe, I see no similar urgency. Yes—keep working on air-defense. But don’t bet everything on it.
More fighter jets remain the best option on the table. Only when Ukraine’s air power rises will Putin realize his last line of defense—missiles—is no longer enough. When his aircraft start falling from the sky at regular intervals, when he can no longer get them close to the front, that’s when he’ll begin to think seriously about defeat. That’s when the idea of not fighting might start to feel like escape.
If the United States imposed truly crippling sanctions, this war could end in three months. But that option isn’t on the table—so stop dreaming.
Fill the final hole. It’s not that hard. And the best part? It’s far easier than sourcing the next long-range air-defense unit.
Some insist we must cling to the rules-based order, no matter what. But here’s the truth: dictators don’t get to hide behind democratic rules while actively trying to destroy them. You can’t burn the house down and then demand protection under its roof.
Ukraine needs a 700–1000 km ground-launched missile—and fast. France has the technology. The next step isn’t just to supply more—it’s to manufacture them in Ukraine. That means full-scale tech transfer. Now.
Ask yourself what Churchill or Roosevelt would have done if London was under daily missile fire and a nearby ally had the means to hit back.
You already know the answer.
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“Some insist we must cling to the rules-based order, no matter what. But here’s the truth: dictators don’t get to hide behind democratic rules while actively trying to destroy them. You can’t burn the house down and then demand protection under its roof.”
You’re couldn’t be more correct, Shankar! And Therein lies the rub! Putin and Trump don’t play by the rules, it’s a zero sum game for them. Yet, all they do is exploit democratic rules and loopholes to consolidate power, and rid themselves of any, and all dissent or competition.
Furthermore, Putin plays this game daily by inserting itself into Western politics; particularly Europe and America. Orban, was able to consolidate power by undermining all of Hungary’s institutions and rule of law and the results are significantly worse for the citizens of Hungary. If not for the EU and Hungary’s ability to extort the EU for tens of billions, their economy would be in the gutter right now.
Additionally, Trump, The Federalist Society and Heritage, are all undermining our rule of law, and so far they have been extremely successful.
Bottom line, the damage is still too early to estimate in its entirety; however, the damage to many of our institutions, the rule of law, due process, and our Constitution which has been under attack since before the 2024 election was even completed (see SCOTUS rulings and MSM complicity), is incalculable!
If democracy is to win this war, we need a new game plan, and it means throwing out all the rules, and making them up as we go along. IMHO…:)
"Some insist we must cling to the rules-based order, no matter what."
When the threat becomes existential there is no more room for a "rules-based order". That only works when everyone adheres to the rules. Putin (and Trump, for that matter) do not believe in rules. Ukraine understands and some in Europe are beginning to. A war that started out as a simple "land-grab" by Russia has become that existential threat to Europe thanks to a feckless US foreign policy (is there one?) and decades long European denial. Russia can be defeated sooner, rather than later. Europe holds the key.