China helped us avoid World War III
How did Putin fail to get China on board?
Chinese Premier Xi visited Moscow, and Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Beijing. Trade between China and Russia reached a record $240 billion in 2023. The plan was to hit $200 billion for the year, but they exceeded that number. What is there not to like? Can we simply lump Russia and China together?
Nope. We cannot.
After a call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin this Thursday, both countries issued statements. Upon closer inspection, it reveals a significant difference between the needs, wants, and expressions of the two nations.
“The leaders of the two countries realize that the U.S. is practically implementing a policy of double containment, [toward] both Russia and China,” Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said.
According to a readout from Chinese state broadcaster CCTV, President Xi said the two nations “should closely collaborate strategically, defend the sovereignty, security and development interests of their respective countries, and resolutely oppose interference in internal affairs by external forces.”
The Kremlin aims to use every opportunity to keep Russia and China in a single basket. China says it wants to keep external forces away from its internals. Any country in the world could repeat the statement issued by China.
China, the second-largest military spender in the world, could have easily exacerbated the war in Eastern Europe. However, they refuse to repeat the mistake Joseph Stalin made at the onset of the Second World War, which eventually had severe consequences for him.
Joseph Stalin’s decision to enter into a non-aggression pact, known as the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, with Adolf Hitler’s Nazi Germany in August 1939 was a significant mistake with far-reaching consequences. Stalin believed that the pact would secure Soviet interests by preventing a two-front war with Germany and buying time to prepare for a potential conflict. However, he underestimated Hitler’s expansionist ambitions and willingness to violate agreements.
An assumption by China that Putin will stop after breaking NATO and expanding into Europe, would be no different than the mistake committed by Stalin. Once he goes West, there is always a chance that he will turn south after some point. Just like Hitler.
China has avoided this trap.
China is not supplying Weapons to Russia
The Russian invasion of Ukraine would have escalated to a different level had China offered material support for the war. When Putin launched his invasion, no one anticipated the shortcomings of the Russian army and its weapons. By the end of 2022, it became evident that Russia could not win the conflict on its own. The first entity they turned to for assistance was, most probably, China.
According to a U.S. intercept of Russian intelligence, details of which were published by the Washington Post in April last year, China approved “provision of lethal aid” to Russia in its war in Ukraine earlier this year and planned to disguise military equipment as civilian items.
The intercept, apparently obtained through U.S. eavesdropping on Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), was included in a top-secret summary, dated Feb. 23, of recent Ukraine- and Russia-related “products” compiled by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
This news came from the Kremlin, not from China. It is entirely possible that China and Russia discussed the supply of weapons. However, we cannot blame someone for considering such actions. We can only scrutinize them based on their actual deeds.
We are nearing the second anniversary of the Russian invasion. China has not provided weapons to Russia. This likely explains why the relationship between Russia, Iran, and North Korea has grown stronger than ever. If China had joined this alliance, the world would be significantly horrible place to live today.
China buys a whole lot of Russian oil
They are buying millions of barrels of oil from Russia every day and potentially saving billions of dollars.
Russia now accounts for 19% of China’s oil imports, while Saudi Arabia makes up 15%. China’s total spending on Russian crude reached $60.64 billion last year. That translates to an average import price of $566.64 per metric ton, according to CNN’s calculation. This was about 10% cheaper than the average price it paid for Saudi crude, which was $626.86 per metric ton.
But hold on for a minute.
Did the West genuinely not want India and China to purchase oil from Russia? Were they prepared to manage an energy market suddenly short of ten million barrels of oil overnight? A global oil crisis would have played right into Vladimir Putin’s hands. He could have exploited the chaos to weaken Ukraine’s ties with the West.
China Keeps Putin’s Size in Check
The one time I felt truly anxious was when the Chinese premier visited Moscow in March 2023. I had no idea what to anticipate or what would result from it. The Kremlin was eager for China to accept “the deal of the century”: a pipeline to transport gas from the Yamal Peninsula reserves in West Siberia to China.
According to Reuters, the proposed “2,600-km pipeline could carry 50 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas a year, slightly less than the now defunct Nord Stream 1 pipeline linking Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea”.
If China had agreed to the pipeline, the Kremlin would have effectively replaced the West. However, China would have substantially increased its dependency on a single source. President Xi refused to commit, and the pipeline remains merely a proposal on paper.
But, at the same time, China ramped up its trade with Russia. It reached a record $240 billion in 2023.
Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping had originally pledged to boost bilateral trade in 2023 to $200 billion, a target that Russia’s customs agency said had already been reached in the fall.
So, what exactly has China done?
They’ve established a robust trading partnership, adding a significant player with a vast market and limited alternatives. They’ve effectively negotiated favorable deals for importing oil at discounted rates, securing their energy needs for the foreseeable future.
They strategically declined to move forward with the gas pipeline, thereby decreasing their reliance on Russia and overtly asserting their independence. This move also serves to subtly undermine Russia’s position, leaving them feeling marginalized and seeking assistance.
China’s decision not to supply weapons to fuel the Russian war effort ensures they maintain positive relations with their European market partners.
What is there not to like for China?
They chose money, instead of expansionism.
Why not?
Western world has nothing to blame
It’s comforting to have a scapegoat for the mistakes we make. Blaming China or anyone else for the ongoing conflict year after year is misguided. China has simply acted in what they perceive to be their best interests.
They do not want Putin to lose and be replaced by a leader who could potentially favor the West. A democracy in the north and the south is a significant concern for China. They are also aware that Putin may not limit his actions to Europe and could potentially destabilize other borders. China is effectively keeping Putin’s power in check in the region. Remarkably, they have achieved this while ensuring they maintain positive relations with Europe.
So, let us refrain from blaming China or any other nation for not winning a war that could have been won a long time ago. This responsibility falls on the West alone, and no one else.
My Ukraine stories are in the public domain. Assistance appreciated.
