Can Ukraine Capture the Commander of the 155th Naval Brigade

Will it be worth the effort?

Create a word cloud that describes a sick and cruel terrorist outfit in the world. You can apply that cloud without any changes to Russia’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade. They are elite in name but sick at the core. The Russians keep throwing this brigade into the deep end.

They have been repeatedly brutalized by the higher-ups in the Kremlin, and that brutality has slowly filtered down to become the DNA of this brigade.

Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on Aug. 16 he had appealed to the U.N. and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) over a video of Russian troops allegedly displaying the head of a decapitated Ukrainian soldier.

The rate at which Russian forces execute Ukrainian prisoners of war has skyrocketed in 2024.

The European Union (EU) issued a statement on October 16 condemning Russian executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) and noted that at least 177 Ukrainian POWs have died in Russian captivity since February 2022.[3] The EU called Russia’s increasingly frequent executions of Ukrainian POWs a grave breach of the Geneva Convention, highlighting that the executions demonstrate Russia’s systemic disregard for international law.

Multiple media reports indicate that Russia’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade is at the forefront of committing war crimes, and I have no reason to doubt that assessment. Time and again, the Russians have thrown this brigade into the worst combat positions. They fought at Vuhledar for a very long time, and they were recently moved to Kursk Oblast. Even in Kursk, they are at the leading edge of the most challenging part of the Kursk operations for the Russian forces.

Look at where they are right now:

There is no part of the frontline more dangerous for Russian forces than the western end of the Kursk salient. This section is particularly perilous for them because Ukraine has too many options to respond. Ukraine enjoys freedom of movement, while Russia’s movement in this area is severely restricted and choked by the presence of rivers, forests, swamps and Ukrainian troops.

The one brigade with a Ukrainian target on its back is standing at the edge of the worst part of the entire Russian frontline. Ukraine has patiently waited for the 155th to advance and has captured multiple settlements along the way. They probably assumed that medals were waiting for them back home.

Russian military bloggers now report that Ukraine has surrounded the brigade:

“The units of the 155th seperate marine brigade, located in the Novoivanikva area, are facing serious difficulties in providing themselves with ammunition and food. They have found themselves effectively surrounded by Ukrainian forces, which makes it impossible to continue offensive actions and develop success. The weather also makes its own ‘adjustments’ to the course of the battles, adding additional difficulties and unpredictablity to the execution of combat missions.

Despite the critical situation, commanders continue to send reports of imaginary successes, hiding the real problems and dangers that our soldiers face.

In general, there are many difficulties, and even greatertrails await us ahead. Let’s pray for our guys”.

OUCH!.

I agree with the Russian military bloggers’ assessment because one look at the map shows how far ahead the 155th Brigade has moved from its own lines. They advanced too quickly in a crowded area that is completely under the fire control of Ukrainian troops. Ukraine can either completely cordon off the entire section to the south of the Seym River or focus on the 155th Brigade. They have all the options on the table.

Capturing the commander of the 155th Brigade would be huge, as he could be brought to trial whenever that happens. It would expose to the world the kind of atrocities the Russian forces have committed and be extremely valuable when the West is ready to present the bill to the Kremlin.

However, it will require a significant amount of Ukrainian resources. So, I am not sure how Ukraine will proceed from here. They can simply destroy the brigade, force it to surrender, or allow more Russian troops to advance into the danger zone.

I have no idea. I am unable to choose one among the options listed above.

Russian operations in Kursk Oblast have been fluctuating like a sine wave, with ups and downs.

It is not because the Russian forces are executing it that way; it is because Ukraine is modeling the Russian response in that manner. You don’t exhibit a sine wave response when your troop capacity in the sector is on an upward slope.

The reason this is happening is that Ukraine is micro-managing the sector and purposely leaving certain sections elastic. The lines will bend, and reinforcements to strengthen the bend can appear as and when Ukraine chooses. It is a tactical response, and it is that very same tactic that has put the 155th Brigade into a Ukrainian lock.

Every day Putin wastes time without sending 100,000 troops to Kursk makes it harder to evict Ukrainian troops from Russian territory. It is the same predicament Ukraine faced in southern Ukraine, in the Zaporizhzhia sector. A lack of weapons and bad advice from Washington, D.C., prevented Ukraine from breaking through the Russian lines in southern Ukraine in late 2022 and early 2023. Once that window passed, the Russian lines in southern Ukraine became fortified and entrenched. Now Ukraine needs a substantial amount of combat power to break those lines.

If they needed 2x the power in late 2022, now they need 10x. Either their power has to increase, or Russian power has to decrease. Either way, exceptional combat disparity is required for the lines to break in southern Ukraine. We can apply the same logic to Kursk.

Putin needs to order a full mobilization; that remains his only way out. But considering the state of his shrinking economy, I don’t think Putin is even contemplating that option.

It feels like a check to me.

Checkmate is not too far off.