Britain’s New National Security Advisor: An Excellent Choice

A Timely Move for Today’s Challenges

While European leaders are still grappling with how to respond and recalibrate their approach to the Trump-Musk administration in the White House, the UK has taken a decisive step by appointing Jonathan Powell as National Security Advisor to Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Putin’s posture towards Ukraine changed immediately after the results of the November 5th U.S. Presidential election. He wants to freeze the conflict in return for lifting the sanctions. Yes, you are reading that correctly. I want everything, while you get nothing. Want me to stop fighting, then give up fighting.

ISW: Putin stated during his November 7 Valdai Club address that he is open to discussions meant to “restore” US-Russia relations but that the United States must initiate these negotiations, and implied that Russia will only consider a reset in US-Russia relations if the United States drops sanctions against Russia and ceases supporting Ukraine — terms that exclusively benefit Russia and offer no benefit to the United States.

With Donald Trump and Elon Musk now in the White House, a complete victory for Ukraine may already be slipping out of reach. This possibility, though hard to accept, is something we must start preparing for, as it could very well define our immediate reality.

It’s against this backdrop that we should consider the appointment of Jonathan Powell as National Security Advisor to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Powell’s reputation as a seasoned foreign policy expert and skilled conflict negotiator has sparked frustration among some Ukrainian military bloggers, who view his appointment with concern in light of his diplomatic approach to international conflicts.

Jonathan Powell played a key role in former British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s government during the late 1990s.

In the early years of the Blair Government, one of Powell’s most crucial jobs was his role in the Northern Ireland peace talks that led to the Good Friday Agreement. In March 2008, Powell called for tactics used successfully in Northern Ireland to be applied to the War on Terrorism. He suggested that western governments hold talks with Al Qaeda and the Taliban, just as the British government negotiated with the Provisional IRA in order to bring about a peace deal in Northern Ireland. His suggestion was publicly rejected by the British Foreign Office. His book Great Hatred, Little Room: Making Peace in Northern Ireland details the negotiations which led to the Agreement which devised and put in place a devolved, power-sharing government for Northern Ireland.

Powell is an advocate for fighting and talking. Obvisously Ukranian military bloggers understand what happens when you start talking to Putin. They want to defeat the Russian army and send them back behind their borders. To start talking means, giving up something. But to dismiss Powell’s appointment as a huge win for Putin is a big mistake.

Listen to some of the key things Powell himself had said last year with respect to Ukraine. It will help us understand the man better. This is what he wrote in January 2023:

• Ukraine has enjoyed an amazingly successful campaign under General Zaluzhnyi and his commanders, and hopes to take back more territory. Putin is relying on time and the traditional Russian route to victory, being prepared to endure more death and destruction than anyone else — think of Borodino and Stalingrad.

• Neither side sees the political room to make compromises.

• The war may of course unseat Putin.

• But we can’t base our policy on a hope of regime change in Moscow when we have no control over it happening.

• It would be equally mistaken to force Ukraine into surrender negotiations in the face of Putin’s repeated nuclear sabre rattling, as western commentators at the other end of the spectrum appear to do.

• In the Minsk negotiations of 2014, Vladislav Surkov, the Kremlin’s former “grey cardinal”, had prepared thoroughly and ran rings around Ukraine’s then-president, Petro Poroshenko. Ukraine should not make the same mistake again.

• The individual items that Poroshenko agreed to, such as referenda in the occupied areas, were perfectly reasonable, but he also agreed — partly under Franco-German pressure — to a sequence of steps that his side could never deliver. It would be a tragedy this time if the Ukrainians lost at the negotiating table what they had so painfully won on the battlefield just because of lack of preparation.

• (Ukraine) would be well-served to insist on “fighting and talking” at the same time to avoid the trap of a ceasefire in which the Russians can regroup militarily and use a frozen conflict as leverage.

• It remains unlikely that Nato will welcome Ukraine as a member any time soon, but Kyiv should avoid offering a treaty that makes neutrality a commitment to other states rather than a unilateral undertaking on which it can change its mind later. A better approach might be for Ukraine to transform itself into a well-armed “hedgehog”, forcing the Russians to think twice before invading again.

So, there it is.

Jonathan Powell doesn’t resemble Jake Sullivan, who continues to advise President Biden. Yet having someone like Powell advising both Britain and Ukraine is crucial. Putin will undoubtedly try to play on Trump’s ego, hoping to drive a wedge between Kyiv and the U.S.

Trump, like Putin, craves a win. He’s promised to end the war, and if that doesn’t happen, it could tarnish his strongman image. While Trump might find a way to spin this, his real focus will likely be on ending the war to present himself to his MAGA supporters as a world-leading peacemaker.

This dynamic gives Ukraine, much like Putin, an opportunity to appeal to Trump’s ego and draw him to their side. While this may not ensure total victory, it could mean the difference between Ukraine facing a short-term setback versus a prolonged, potentially unrecoverable struggle. Meanwhile, as this unfolds, Europe and the Biden administration have two crucial months to bolster Ukraine’s combat capabilities.

In this regard, the Biden administration has made two significant moves. They’ve sent 500 air-defense missiles to Ukraine, providing enough to last at least six months to a year. Additionally, they’ve lifted the ban on U.S. defense contractors working directly in Ukraine to maintain and repair American weaponry. The administration intends to use all remaining funds from the supplemental aid package Congress approved in April 2024 before the end of Biden’s term.

So, not everything is going Putin’s way. Although we’d prefer not to be in this situation, that moment is long past. Now, we need to find the best path forward.