Breaking the Myth: Ukraine Gets a Blank Check
Nope. We are the ones who are riding on their shoulders
The world was utterly unprepared, a fact brutally exposed by recent events. Assumptions once held dear are crumbling one by one, leaving us reeling in the wake of stark reality.
Consider the state of the United States in April 2022: a production rate of less than 12,500 shells per month. Fast forward to today, and that figure is nearing 36,000 per month, with projections reaching 100,000 by October next year. Yet, even then, the United States will fall short of matching Russia’s formidable production capacity — approaching 2 million shells per year.
Lockheed Martin currently manufactures 500 Patriot missiles annually, with plans to increase production to 650 by 2026. However, even with this boost, the United States will still lag significantly behind Russia’s estimated annual capacity of 1,500 missiles.
Russia, aided by Iran, is constructing a drone factory poised to churn out thousands of drones annually. Meanwhile, it’s uncertain if the United States has a comparable drone manufacturing facility. Given the stark lesson from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, where drones play a pivotal role, it’s unlikely the U.S. will remain idle in this arena. The imperative is clear: adapt to drone technology or risk being overwhelmed on the battlefield.
No one. Not the United States. Not Europe. No one was ready to meet the requirements of the war in the 21st century. Everybody is improvising.
Ukraine’s resistance against Russia’s westward expansion has afforded everyone the opportunity to prepare.
Despite its shortcomings, Russia has effectively transformed into a wartime economy, enabling its defense industrial base to sustain operations in Ukraine. The question arises: what will the Russian president do once the invasion of Ukraine concludes and surplus capacity remains? The likelihood is that he will continue expanding production. However, as warehouses fill up, there may be concerns about potential uses for the excess resources.
If Ukraine fails to halt Russian aggression, it could lead to a domino effect where Europe, followed by the United States, could find themselves in conflict with the Russian army. This scenario would echo the events of the Second World War, where appeasement led to devastating consequences. Just as we once sacrificed Czechoslovakia in hopes of peace, only to confront Hitler’s forces in a battle for freedom, history may repeat itself if decisive action isn’t taken.
It’s going to take years for Europe to build up the arms and ammunition production capacity needed to both aid Ukraine and reequip national forces, Belgium’s former deputy chief of defense said. “It’s not a joke, we’re in deep shit. Especially in Belgium, but we’re not the only ones,” ” Marc Thys, who retired in 2023 with the rank of lieutenant general, told Politico
Not only Europe, but the United States, despite significant military expenditures, also faces challenges. The conflict in Eastern Europe starkly revealed the inadequacy of artillery shell production in the United States. Should the U.S. lose air superiority and become embroiled in a ground battle, the consequences could be dire. The lack of adequate artillery shell production leaves the nation ill-equipped to confront the enemy effectively.
Russia boasts a formidable capacity to manufacture nearly two million artillery shells annually. In stark contrast, the United States fell drastically short in 2022, producing less than a quarter of that amount. This deficiency reveals a critical weakness in America’s readiness to endure a prolonged ground war and emerge victorious. However, strides are being made to address this vulnerability, with Ukraine’s efforts playing a pivotal role in bolstering the U.S.’s capabilities.
How did Ukraine help the United States?
“Here is the best-kept secret about U.S. military aid to Ukraine: Most of the money is being spent here in the United States. That’s right: Funds that lawmakers approve to arm Ukraine are not going directly to Ukraine but are being used stateside to build new weapons or to replace weapons sent to Kyiv from U.S. stockpiles. Of the $68 billion in military and related assistance Congress has approved since Russia invaded Ukraine, almost 90 percent is going to Americans, one analysis found.
In other words, as happens with foreign military aid, our aid to Ukraine is not only creating American jobs but also reinvigorating our dangerously atrophied defense industrial base. Vance said in October that “the condition of the American defense industrial base is a national scandal. Repairing it is among our most urgent priorities.” Well, our aid to Ukraine is doing exactly that, writes Marc A. Thiessen, for the Washington Post.
The US government has allocated $38 billion to US companies or personnel as part of its assistance packages to Ukraine. This investment is crucial in facilitating the United States’ efforts to enhance its production capacity.
“For instance, Lockheed Martin, maker of the HIMARS — which has been central to Ukraine’s counteroffensive — plans to increase its Camden, Arkansas facility’s workforce by 20%, and recently announced increased profit projections through the end of the year. Similarly, General Dynamics has committed to building new production facilities in Mesquite, Texas, bringing money and jobs to the region. Change like this takes place only when the Pentagon sends strong and stable market signals to the defense industry, giving it the confidence to expand and hire, said the the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) a nonprofit, transatlantic organization headquartered in Washington, DC”.
Weapons Makers Can’t Hire Enough Workers as Ukraine War Drives Demand. Rising geopolitical tensions have boosted military spending, prompting an industrywide hiring spree- WSJ, April 2023
To depict Ukraine as the exclusive beneficiary of Western aid is not merely naïve; it’s a manipulative tactic that obscures the broader truth to sway individuals towards a pro-Kremlin stance.
“Ramping up production of the Javelins, Himars and the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) it fires is complex and time-consuming. Detailed mapping of the supply chains for each by the Financial Times reveals a sprawling network: Himars and GMLRS are assembled in factories across 141 different US cities, while Javelins are built in 16 states”.
Such decisions are typically inconceivable during peacetime. However, the urgency brought forth by the situation in Ukraine has compelled us to recognize the significance of bolstering our arsenal with Javelins, HIMARS, and Patriot missiles. By closely observing the developments in Ukraine, we’re learning from their experiences, identifying strengths and weaknesses, and strategically investing in measures to fortify our position for potential conflict scenarios.
Ukraine’s sacrifice, in the face of grave danger, is inadvertently serving to enhance the United States’ national security. Through the crucible of conflict, previously unrecognized weaknesses are being identified and remedied, ultimately strengthening the nation’s defenses.
The story is practically the same for Europe
After years of neglecting investment in defense industrial capacity, Europe has come to two stark realizations: it is severely underprepared to confront Putin’s forces, and it can no longer depend solely on the United States for protection.
In July last year, the European Union agreed to invest half a billion “dedicated to bolstering the bloc’s industrial production capacities for ground-to-ground and artillery ammunition as well as missiles”.
In Europe, Germany-based Rheinmetall AG is the largest artillery shell producer, currently manufacturing 37,500 shells per month or 450,000 per year.
Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger told German newspaper BILD that things are moving at an extremely fast pace: “A lot has changed for the better in military procurement. Rheinmetall alone received orders or framework agreements worth over 10 billion euros from the federal government last year — for the Bundeswehr and for the Ukraine. This year this sum will increase to at least 15 billion.
The pace is fast: What would have previously taken ten years is now accomplished in a few months. We will now build a new ammunition factory in Germany in record time to create strategic security of supply”.
Finland has increased its artillery shell production by five times compared to 2022. Nitro-Chem’s plants in Bydgoszcz, Poland are now running three shifts, working 24 hours a day, producing TNT. Some factories in Europe are running at maximum capacity, while additional capacity is slowly coming online through the sudden inflow of investments. Sweden’s BAE Systems Hägglunds in Örnsköldsvik has gone from producing one combat vehicle a week to about one a day by February last year.
These are just a few examples I had collected in order to show the rapid retooling of factories in Europe.
Is this enough?
No.
Why is this awakening occurring now instead of four years ago? It’s because Ukraine persists in blocking the path of a destructive force determined to advance westward.
The Western world isn’t merely dispatching ships laden with cash to Ukrainian shores. Military aid, comprising weapons and ammunition, is sourced from defense contractors who sustain local communities. When the West procures military equipment through international aid frameworks, although the materials are sent to Ukraine, the funds and employment opportunities largely stay within their own borders.
Ukraine isn’t just absorbing the blows for the world; it’s also affording the West an opportunity to rectify its shortcomings. By bravely confronting a long-standing adversary, Ukraine is aiding a Western world that was unprepared, allowing it to fortify itself against a threat that had long lurked in the shadows.
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