Biden Does a Half Reverse: Long range missiles can now be long range

But only in Kursk

I'm glad I chose to wait before writing this story, as I wasn’t sure whether the recent decision by the Biden administration to lift its longstanding restriction on Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons was truly without any limits.

Unfortunately, it still isn’t.

According to Axios, the Biden admin permitted Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles in the Kursk area. The plan is to “deter North Korea from sending more troops to Russia for the war against Ukraine”.

U.S. officials hope that if North Korean troops in Kursk are hit, Pyongyang might review its decision to send troops to Russia and the Russian counterattack in Kursk will fail.

Under normal circumstances, I would have criticized the decision as the worst possible choice. The administration still deserves significant criticism for its continued escalation management strategy, which has failed for more than two and a half years.

However, there is a small silver lining in this situation.

Kursk is where Putin’s Achilles' heel lies. He must drive Ukrainian forces out of Kursk. Numerous reports online suggest that Putin aims to remove Ukrainian troops from Kursk before January 20th, and I agree with those assessments. Given the dire state of the Russian economy, Putin needs to reach the negotiation table as soon as possible. When he reaches that point of desperation, any Russian land under Ukrainian control will provide Ukraine with enormous leverage in determining the final borders between the two countries.

This is why Putin is likely to concentrate all his efforts on Kursk. Bloomberg reported yesterday that Russia plans to increase North Korean troop deployment in the Ukraine war to 100,000. I believe the majority of those troops can be expected to be sent to Kursk.

The administration’s decision to relax restrictions on long-range weapons will undoubtedly help Ukraine destroy a significant amount of Russian resources in the area. However, the continued effort to micromanage how Ukraine conducts its war against an invader sends a deeply troubling message to the world. It signals that the administration remains overly cautious about provoking a Russian response.

After two and a half years, this reluctance is baffling.

While the administration may have lifted restrictions on ATACMS usage in Kursk, there is still no clarity on whether it has approved Britain’s request to allow Ukraine to use British-made Storm Shadow missiles against Russian targets. These missiles rely on U.S. data for targeting, requiring cooperation from the Biden administration. So far, it seems approval has not been granted.

Frankly, I am perplexed by the Biden administration’s hesitation on this issue. The persistent desire to control the war from a distance must end. There is still time for change. European leaders should publicly call out Biden on this matter; private backchannel efforts have clearly failed, and time is running out. If this is the approach he intends to carry into the remainder of his term, it would be well worth the risk for European leaders to openly voice their grievances.

What can Ukraine do?

The good news is that Ukraine has publicly announced it has manufactured 100 missiles since the start of the year. They are likely waiting for the Biden administration to relax its long-range restrictions and deliver the promised weapons. Of course, they want to avoid triggering panic among those fearful of escalation, which could lead to the $4 billion worth of weapons being handed over to the incoming Trump administration.

It makes sense for Ukraine to keep its long-range missiles dormant in their silos for now. This is not the right time to deploy them. Instead, they should focus on using ATACMS to target North Korean troops as soon as they appear on the battlefield.