Biden Administration Makes 2024's Boldest Move to Support Ukraine
Completely Unexpected at This Juncture
To be honest, I wasn’t expecting this — not even 1% . Just a couple of days ago, I wrote that I anticipated the Biden administration would keep a low profile on Ukraine aid until after the election, which is only two weeks away.
Why give Trump and the MAGA crowd another talking point to disrupt the political climate?
I expected the Biden administration to ramp up aid during the lame-duck period after the election.
However, Biden delegated additional responsibilities to the ever-reliable Secretary of State Antony Blinken, setting the stage to fully utilize the Ukraine funding approved by the Congress in April 2024. As a result, the United States was primed to elevate its support for Ukraine.
The groundwork was laid.
What we didn’t know was when the flow of aid would increase and what kind of weapons the United States would send to Ukraine. The specifics of what is sent are just as important as when and how much is sent.
After drawing $425 million from the Presidential Drawdown Authority to send weapons to Ukraine a week ago, the administration has now drawn another $400 million. This weapons package includes the usual:
The capabilities in this announcement include:
Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition;
60mm, 81mm, and 120mm mortar systems and rounds;
Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles;
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
M113 Armored Personnel Carriers;
Satellite communication equipment;
Small arms and ammunition;
Grenades and training equipment;
Demolitions equipment and munitions;
Equipment to protect critical national infrastructure; and
Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation.
That amounts to a lot of low-end items for $825 million.
However, the United States also announced a significant $800 million investment in Ukraine’s drone program. This is not the first time the United States has invested in Ukraine’s defense manufacturing; it’s the second time. In April 2024, Arsenii Pushkarenko, Deputy Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Policy in Ukraine, stated that the United States would purchase $1.6 billion worth of Ukrainian weapons for the Ukrainian army.
This brings the total investment made by the United States in Ukrainian defense manufacturers to $2.4 billion, which accounts for 12% of Ukraine’s current weapons production capacity.
Around the same time the U.S. decided to invest in Ukrainian defense manufacturing, Denmark also joined the effort with a modest $28 million investment. Five months later, in October, Denmark increased its investment to $618 million. The U.S. and Denmark’s investments are the only large contributions I could find, but I’m sure other countries have also invested.
The numbers are starting to grow, which is excellent news for Ukraine. If maintaining peace depends on accumulating deterrents against the aggressor, then the best way to achieve that is by helping Ukraine stand on its own against the Kremlin — now and in the future.
I particularly appreciate the direct injection of $800 million into Ukraine’s drone program by the United States. I don’t believe the West will ever deliver truly long-range weapons to Ukraine — those with a range of more than 300 kilometers.
The Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), established in 1987, is an informal political agreement among member countries aimed at preventing the proliferation of missile technology.
It has two hard limits:
1. You cannot export missiles with a payload of +500 kilograms.
2. You cannot export missiles with a range of more than 300 kilometers.
300 kilometers is the maximum available range. At best, the West can authorize Ukraine to strike Russian targets within this range. Russia will obviously move its assets beyond this limit and continue its war production efforts. Ukraine’s long-range drones, capable of traveling more than 300 kilometers, will be extremely important in the current war and will serve as a deterrent against Russian forces in the future.
The United States has not only ramped up its aid delivery to Ukraine; they are also starting to spend it in the right areas.
Superb article! You beat me to it. I was planning on writing about this topic today - no need now! LOL