As North Korean Troops Prepare for direct deployment in Ukraine, the West has only 1 option to stop this

A special military response

The numbers keep fluctuating. Ukrainian President Zelensky and South Korea have discussed reports of 10,000 North Korean soldiers preparing to be deployed in occupied Ukraine to fight alongside Russian troops. Social media has been abuzz with this number escalating to as many as 200,000 North Korean soldiers joining forces with Russia.

North Korea has over a million active military personnel, though they lack substantial combat experience. As a poor country burdened by the cost of maintaining an excessively large military, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un stands to gain by having Putin finance the deployment of troops that would otherwise remain idle in barracks.

However, the claim that 200,000 North Korean soldiers are set to be imminently deployed to occupied Ukraine seems exaggerated. Moving such a large force without attracting attention would be impossible. If this were the case, South Korea would have confirmed it, but no such confirmation has been made.

This is South Korea’s official stance:

North Korea has shipped 1,500 special forces troops to Russia’s Far East for training and acclimatising at local military bases and will likely be deployed for combat in the war in Ukraine, South Korea’s spy agency said on Friday.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service said it had been working with the Ukrainian intelligence service and had used facial recognition artificial intelligence technology to identify North Korean officers in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region supporting Russian forces firing North Korean missiles.

Media reports from South Korea estimate the number of troops en route to Ukraine at around 12,000, close to the 10,000 figure estimated by Ukraine’s spy chief, Kyrylo Budanov.

“They will be ready [to fight in Ukraine] on Nov. 1,” Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told TWZ.

The North Korean troops will be using Russian equipment and ammunition, said Budanov. The first cadre of 2,600 soldiers will go to Kursk, where Ukraine has established a heavily fought-over foothold (more on that later). It is unclear where the remaining North Korean troops will go, he added.

This makes a lot of sense under current conditions. My own assessments have revealed that Russia needs many more troops to fully expel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk oblast. The situation in Kursk has been a tug-of-war over the last eight weeks, with Russian forces gaining ground, Ukraine responding, and both sides continuing to reinforce their troops. The frontline in Kursk remains one of the most volatile, with casualties skyrocketing.

In the last seven days, the Russians have lost over 1,300 soldiers on average per day, a staggering number. Putin is struggling to recruit troops, despite repeatedly increasing one-time payments and annual wages for new recruits. Each additional recruit further depletes an already shrinking workforce, adding strain to the state’s production capacity and fueling inflation.

Putin could reduce this cost to the state by having North Korea supply troops. He could offer payment in money and technology, or defer cash payments to a future date, easing the immediate pressure on his cash flow. There are plenty of reasons why this alliance could continue to grow. Russia is desperate for cannon fodder, and North Korea is desperate for money and technology — a relationship forged in the fires of desperation.

This is, of course, an alarming situation that requires a swift and decisive response from the West. House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner urged the Biden administration to respond immediately, stating:

These troop movements, if true, are alarming and are an extreme escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. They require an immediate response from the United States and our NATO allies to avoid a widening conflict.

He’s absolutely right. The West can stop this, but only with an immediate response — time is of the essence. I’ve written many times recently that every day Putin delays sending 100,000 troops to Kursk, he makes it harder to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the oblast. I also noted that Russia’s best chance to push Ukraine out of Kursk came and went in August 2024, during the first four weeks of their incursion into Russian territory.

The same urgency now applies to the West. They must act swiftly, without wasting time. A surgical operation targeting North Korean troops is essential. This requires an all-hands-on-deck response, using all available Western intelligence to locate North Korean forces fighting alongside Russia — or even in support roles. Once identified, this intelligence should be passed to the Ukrainians, along with the resources and clearances necessary to strike hard and decisively.

Such a response would send a clear, immediate message to both North Korea and Vladimir Putin. It must be fierce enough to make them reconsider their alliance. This is not an insurmountable task. Once the first wave of North Korean troops is neutralized, Putin and Kim Jong Un will likely test Western resolve with one or two more deployments. Each time, the response must escalate, becoming even more forceful than the last.

Putin will get the message. North Korea will get the message. And so will all other dictators.

They will slow down on their own.

No, I don’t think we’re standing on the edge of World War III, but if the West sits idle, this situation will continue to escalate unnecessarily. How we respond in these critical first four weeks will determine the direction this conflict takes.