8 Counties Can Change the Future of the World.

Just 8 counties.

The Electoral College system in the United States does not assign equal value to every voter’s ballot; it depends largely on where you live. An American citizen living in Puerto Rico, for instance, has no vote in the presidential race. Meanwhile, someone in Vermont or Wyoming has a vote, but it holds little impact on presidential campaigns, as these states are virtually certain to vote in predictable ways.

Ultimately, the winner and loser of the presidential contest are decided by states open to choosing either side. As we enter the final week of campaigning, the list of battlegrounds has shrunk even further. If Trump holds the Sunbelt and wins Wisconsin, he will win the presidency. If Kamala Harris blocks him from sweeping the Sunbelt, she will win.

There’s a reason I’ve described different paths for each candidate. Winning 270 electoral votes is not a comfortable margin for Kamala Harris—or for the stability of democracy, for that matter. We’ve seen this scenario before. It played out for nearly two and a half months following November 3, 2020.

To minimize post-election maneuvers by Donald Trump and MAGA-aligned billionaires, it would be ideal if Kamala Harris won all seven battleground states. At the very least, if she can win North Carolina and Georgia—the two states leading in turnout in 2024—it will give her the political capital, momentum, and mandate needed to counter the anti-democratic movement.

Can she really win Georgia and North Carolina, two states with a combined 32 electoral votes?

It won’t be an easy task, but if she does win, what happens in eight key counties—four in Georgia and four in North Carolina—will be crucial. These are Democratic strongholds that overwhelmingly voted for Biden in 2020. Kamala Harris needs to run up the numbers in these eight counties to help her edge over the finish line.

Biden won Georgia by 11,000 votes and lost North Carolina by 74,000 votes. An increase in turnout in these eight counties could have a major impact on the final results in both states in 2024. What happens in these counties will always have a significant bearing on the final outcome. If you want to win, this is where it has to happen.

The key for Harris is to build up a lead heading into Election Day. While we cannot predict the final outcome, we can assess whether winning is still within reach. The critical factors to examine to gauge if there’s still a path to victory are twofold.

1. Where is the gender gap in the state?

2. Can Harris exceed the 2020 turnout in these eight counties and maintain turnout at or above the state average?